Pi Network on the rise: Supply surplus due to accelerated Mainnet migration

With a current quotation level of $0.21, the PI token shows noticeable pressure at the start of the week. The distance to the 50-day exponential moving average (0.2394 USD) highlights the weak technical position, especially since the cryptocurrency has been in a downward phase for weeks. Notably, there is a significant gap from the all-time high of $3.00 – a weakness that market participants are increasingly attributing to structural factors.

Exchange Reserves as an Indicator of Selling Pressure

The investigation points directly to blockchain data: centralized trading platforms are continuously increasing their holdings. According to analyses by PiScan, a total of 177,867 PI tokens flowed into CEX wallets within 24 hours. The total holdings on major exchanges amount to 437.88 million units. Such inflows are traditionally interpreted by market professionals as a signal of growing liquidation intentions.

The main driver of this stock buildup is the accelerated wave of transfers from the testnet to the independent blockchain infrastructure. Especially after the full implementation of identity verification processes (KYC), transfer volumes have increased significantly. Official reports show that 17.5 million network participants have successfully completed the KYC process. The use of artificial intelligence reduced processing times by about 50 percent. In December alone, over 6.42 million PI tokens were transferred to the mainnet – a volume that further tightens the supply situation.

Supply Balance Under Pressure

The central risk factor is that the growing supply, driven by rapid migration, cannot be offset by corresponding structural demand. Without the development of real economic use cases, market sentiment is likely to continue eroding. The supply surplus thus leads to a kind of structural price gravitational field.

Technical Scenario Analysis

The chart confirms a bearish trend from a technical perspective. On Monday, the token stabilized after a nearly 2 percent decline the previous day, but the overall pattern remains burdened. Attention is focused on potential support zones:

The first critical level is at $0.1919 – the low from October 11. A break below this level would trigger additional sell signals. In an extreme scenario, the record low of $0.1533 (October 10) could be targeted.

Classical momentum indicators clearly show the weakness: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 43 points, below the critical 50 mark, and shows declining momentum. The MACD, a proven trend follower, confirms the sell signals with both lines crossing below the zero line.

A genuine recovery requires the buyers to regain the 50-day EMA at $0.2394. An ongoing breakout above this barrier would be necessary to neutralize the dominant downward scenario. Currently, all indicators suggest that this scenario is not immediately realistic.