12.24 Market Risk Indicator Warning: USD, Copper, Gold, and Crude Oil Technical Outlook

The US Dollar Retreats from Highs, Risk Indicators Signal Alert

The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations has put pressure on the US dollar. The preliminary Q3 US GDP growth rate came in at 4.3% quarter-over-quarter, well above the expected 3.3%, marking the fastest pace in two years; core personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, in line with market expectations. Strong economic data should support a stronger dollar, but it has been countered by Trump’s pressure on Fed policies.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.37% on Tuesday (December 23), reaching a low of 97.74, forming a two-day decline. More concerning is that the dollar has effectively broken below the key support level of 98.0, hitting a new two-and-a-half-month low. Liquidity during the Christmas holiday has further amplified short-term volatility risks. From a technical perspective, if the dollar cannot hold above 98.0, downside potential will open up, and risk indicators suggest the 95.2 level may be vulnerable.

Support levels: 96.5, 95.2, 93.5
Resistance levels: 98.0, 99.0, 100.0

Commodity Markets Diverge, Risk Management Urgent

Commodity markets show a clear divergence, which now serves as the most important risk indicator.

Copper Breaks Out of Rebound, Strong Momentum

LEM copper surged over 1% during Wednesday (December 24), reaching a high of $12,276. MACD indicators clearly show strong bullish sentiment, with copper entering a new upward phase. The higher high structure indicates the trend quality remains good. If LEM copper can stabilize above the $12,000 level, further rebounds could extend toward $13,000.

Support levels: 12,000, 11,600, 11,200
Resistance levels: 12,400, 13,000, 14,000

Gold Breaks Key Resistance, Rebound Targets Emerge

Gold experienced a modest but clear upward move on Wednesday (December 24), reaching a high of $4,525.8 and successfully breaking above the $4,500 level. Technically, gold is in a new upward trend, with higher highs reflecting a steady trend. If gold can hold above $4,500, this will be an important risk indicator for the extent of the subsequent rebound. The rebound could challenge levels of $4,620 and even $4,770, with January 6th being a critical timing point.

Support levels: 4,500, 4,400, 4,220
Resistance levels: 4,550, 4,620, 4,770

Crude Oil Builds Momentum, Momentum Indicators Turn

WTI crude oil rose 0.9% on Tuesday (December 23), reaching a high of $59.56, marking three consecutive days of gains. AO indicator shows accelerating upward momentum, suggesting a potential correction after the long-term downtrend since June.

If WTI can break and hold above $59.0, further rebound potential could extend to $61.5 and even $64.5. Conversely, if oil prices fall below the $57.0 support level, there is a risk of the downtrend deepening again.

Support levels: 57.0, 55.0, 52.0
Resistance levels: 59.0, 61.5, 64.5

Summary

Current market risk indicators present a complex picture. The dollar faces downside pressure, while commodities generally show a rebound. However, liquidity contraction increases volatility risks that should not be underestimated. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, especially the critical levels at 98.0 for the dollar, 4,500 for gold, and 59.0 for crude oil. These levels often serve as important risk indicators for determining the market’s future direction.