Bitcoin hovers around $92,600, with capital flowing into safe-haven assets becoming the key

Entering early 2026, Bitcoin’s performance continues to disappoint the market. Currently trading around $92,640, it has declined over 26% from its all-time high of $126,080. Although technical rebounds occur from time to time, this rally has ultimately failed to break through the long-term downtrend line, leaving Bitcoin still in a structural weakness.

Capital Rotation Intensifies, Safe-Haven Assets Become Winners

In recent weeks, the market has shown a clear pattern of capital differentiation. Gold and silver continue to strengthen and hit new all-time highs, while Bitcoin remains stuck in a sideways consolidation. According to ICAP Technical Analysis, this is no coincidence—investors are massively rotating funds from Bitcoin into traditional safe-haven assets.

Since peaking in October, Bitcoin has fallen more than one-third, while gold has risen about 15% and silver has surged by as much as 50%. This reversal in capital flow reflects a shaken confidence in risk assets. Amid rising macroeconomic uncertainties and mixed signals from central bank policies, investors are shifting toward more liquid, lower-risk precious metals.

Bitcoin Still Seen as a Risk Asset, New Demand Remains Weak

Crypto market analysis firm CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin is still regarded as a risk asset rather than a safe haven in the current environment. This identity makes it vulnerable when risk sentiment deteriorates.

Latest data shows that Bitcoin ETFs still experienced net outflows exceeding $140 million, indicating that capital outflows remain a primary market feature at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, open interest has slightly rebounded above $28 billion, but this growth mainly comes from the accumulation of short positions rather than new long positions. This further reinforces institutional investors’ cautious stance toward Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment Hits Bottom

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to hover around 27, in the “Fear” zone. This low reading reflects lingering pessimism about the market’s outlook. Until the sentiment index recovers to a neutral zone, investors’ willingness to allocate funds will remain subdued, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies show mixed performance. Ethereum rose 2.51% to $3,250, XRP increased by 4.59%, Solana up 2.53%, but Dogecoin fell 2.50%, indicating a complex internal market structure.

Sudden Drop to $24,111, Liquidity Risks Reemerge

Notably, Bitcoin experienced a momentary abnormal dip to $24,111 on a stablecoin trading pair, then quickly rebounded above $87,000. Such extreme volatility is often related to insufficient liquidity in newly issued stablecoins—order book depth is lacking, and market makers’ quotes are not tight enough, making large market orders prone to causing sudden price drops.

Market participants note that these anomalies are microstructure events rather than trend signals. However, they also serve as a reminder for traders to exercise caution when executing trades on less liquid pairs.

Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s long-term downtrend line remains the main reference. Recent rebounds have repeatedly failed to break through this structural resistance, indicating a lack of bullish momentum.

RSI Indicator: The RSI maintains a downward slope with readings below 50, suggesting that the average momentum over the past 14 trading days still favors the sellers. If this trend continues, short-term selling pressure could further intensify.

MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram is gradually approaching zero. A sustained crossing into negative territory would signal increasing bearish momentum in the short-term moving averages, further confirming Bitcoin’s short-term weakness.

Key Price Levels

$92,292 – Important Resistance Level
This level aligns with the long-term downtrend line and the 50-period simple moving average. If Bitcoin can sustain a breakout and hold above this zone, the bearish structure may weaken, opening room for further upside.

$85,430 – Near-Term Support Zone
This area corresponds to recent weekly lows. As long as the price remains above this level, the market may form a short-term range-bound consolidation.

$80,413 – Major Support Level
Close to the early-year lows. A breakdown below this level could trigger a more dominant bearish trend.

Summary

Bitcoin’s current predicament is not caused by a single factor but results from a combination of macroeconomic environment, market sentiment, capital flows, and institutional caution. Continuous capital outflows, weak new demand, cautious institutional stance, and reevaluation of safe-haven assets all contribute to Bitcoin’s present weakness. As long as these fundamentals do not improve substantially, the consolidation around $92,640 will likely persist, and breaking through resistance levels remains challenging.