SUI Price Technical Collapse: Profit-taking Wave After Falling Below $1.50... Overlapping On- and Off-Chain Bearish Signals

Derivative Positions ‘Daily Settlement’…Rapid Reversal in Trader Sentiment

The futures market is signaling a shift in collective psychology. According to CoinGlass data, Open Interest (OI) has recently decreased by about 10% over the past 24 hours, reaching approximately $679.70 million, indicating that both market makers and retail traders are reducing leverage exposure.

A more intuitive signal is revealed through the asymmetry in liquidation sizes. During the same period, long liquidations amounted to $3.14 million, while short liquidations were only $89,210. This suggests that positions betting on a rebound are being heavily settled, leaning market sentiment toward weakness. As a result, the long-to-short ratio has fallen to 0.9238, weakening the primary buying pressure that drives spot demand.

On-Chain Liquidity ‘Simultaneous Decline’… Trends in TVL and Stablecoins

On-chain activity is also showing signs of slowdown. The TVL on the Sui network has decreased by 3.30% over 24 hours to $869.08 million, reflecting fund outflows from DeFi protocols. A decline in TVL typically indicates reduced network activity, but the concern is that even the market cap of stablecoins, a core liquidity component, has fallen.

Over the past week, stablecoin market cap has decreased by 25.72%, indicating a contraction in the “transaction base” necessary for on-chain activities such as trading, swaps, and lending. This signals a structural change in network demand, not just a temporary price correction.

Technical Breakdown Pattern: Confirmed Descending Triangle, Next Support at $1.3924

The technical setup for SUI on the chart is already bearish. Breaking below $1.50 has confirmed a downward breakout of the 4-hour descending triangle pattern, and it is currently trading below the S1 pivot of $1.47.

The immediate deeper support level is set at S2 pivot of $1.3924. This zone is the first resistance point where initial buying could enter, but under current strong selling momentum, it might serve more as a “breakthrough point” rather than genuine support.

Momentum indicators are accelerating the bearish trend. The 4-hour RSI has entered the oversold zone at 28, and prolonged stays below 30 increase the likelihood of an extended downtrend. The MACD is also deepening in negative territory, indicating that bearish momentum is entering a self-reinforcing phase.

Upside Reversal Scenario: Reclaiming $1.50 as a Prerequisite

While the bearish dominance is clear, it is not entirely irreversible. If SUI recovers back above $1.50, the 50-period EMA at around $1.57 is likely to act as the first resistance.

However, the key at this moment is not just the possibility of an upward reversal but the feasibility of reclaiming $1.50 itself. In a situation where both derivative and on-chain demand weaken simultaneously, technical rebounds could end up as “fake rallies” without underlying supply and demand support.