New insights into gold prices in the coming days: Are we expecting a new surge towards $5000?

Current Scene: Historic Peak then Strategic Pullback

Gold experienced a sharp turning point in 2025, reaching the $4,381 per ounce barrier in mid-October, but then retreated to settle near $4,065 by the end of November. This volatility reflects a clear struggle between two forces: strong institutional demand on one side, and concerns about the sustainability of the rise on the other.

But the most important question isn’t what happened, but what awaits us in the coming days and weeks. Will gold see a new rally toward higher levels, or are we facing a deeper correction?

Factors Supporting Continuous Rise

1. Investment demand at its peak

The data speak clearly: Total gold demand in the first half of 2025 reached 2,455 tons, with a total value exceeding $250 billion. Exchange-traded gold funds have sparked a real revolution, as managed assets jumped to $472 billion with holdings of 3,838 tons, a 6% increase from the previous quarter.

This means new investors, especially from developed markets, no longer see gold as a traditional hedge tool, but as a long-term strategic investment.

2. Central banks continue their aggressive buying

Central banks haven’t stopped increasing their reserves. In the first half of 2025 alone, they added 244 tons of gold, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average.

The numbers are astonishing: China alone added over 65 tons, continuing its steady push for the 22nd consecutive month. Turkey boosted its reserves to over 600 tons. India remains steady. The key percentage here: 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from just 37% a year ago.

3. Widening supply-demand gap

Here lies the real problem: Global mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, but this figure represents a slow growth of only 1% annually. Meanwhile, demand is growing much faster.

Worse still? Recycled gold declined by 1%, as people, assuming the rise continues, prefer to hold onto their assets. This sharply deepens the gap.

Additionally, global extraction costs have risen to $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade. This means expanding production is not an easy or quick option.

The Monetary and Global Context

Dollar and yields decline

The US dollar has fallen about 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year through November 2025. At the same time, 10-year US bond yields dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to around 4.07% in November.

This combination is deadly for yield-generating assets but a life elixir for gold.

Global monetary policy moves toward easing

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%. Market expectations price in another additional cut before the end of 2025. The European Central Bank continues its cautious steps. The Bank of Japan remains accommodative.

This globally accommodative monetary environment is the perfect incubator for rising gold prices.

Sovereign debt and economic concerns

The International Monetary Fund spares no words: Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP. This means investors are desperately seeking safe havens. Gold, by its nature, is the first choice.

Meanwhile, major economies are experiencing clear slowdown, adding an extra layer of uncertainty.

Geopolitical Tensions: Additional Fuel

Trade conflicts between the US and China, tensions in the Middle East, and concerns over the Taiwan Strait—all these boosted gold demand by 7% annually, according to Reuters data.

Geopolitical ambiguity isn’t temporary—meaning gold may remain a preferred hedge.

Outlook for the Coming Days: What Do Experts Say?

Optimistic outlook

HSBC doesn’t hesitate: expects gold to jump to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average forecast of $4,600 throughout the year.

Bank of America agrees cautiously: $5,000 as a potential peak, but an average of $4,400, with a warning about short-term corrections if profit-taking begins.

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $4,900 per ounce in 2026, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs.

J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach around $5,055 by mid-2026.

Summary: The most common range among analysts is $4,800 to $5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Cautious outlook

Risks cannot be ignored:

• HSBC warned of a possible correction toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start profit-taking
• Goldman Sachs warned that prices above $4,800 could face a “valuation credibility test”
• No one expects a major drop without a real economic shock, but short-term corrections are inevitable

Technical Analysis: What Does the Chart Say?

As of November 21, 2025, gold was trading at $4,065, maintaining the main short- to medium-term upward trend line.

Key levels:

• Strong support at $4,000: a clear close below this level could target $3,800
• First resistance at $4,200: a strong breakout could open the way toward $4,400 and $4,680
• RSI at level 50, indicating neutrality—market is in a waiting mode
• MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall upward trend

Most likely near-term scenario: sideways trading between $4,000 and $4,220, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trend line.

In the Middle East

In Egypt: projections indicate gold could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce in 2026, an increase of 158.46% over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE: translating global forecasts of $5,000 per ounce into local currencies, we may see prices approaching 18,750 to 19,000 SAR and 18,375 to 19,000 AED, assuming exchange rates remain stable.

Summary: Should We Invest or Wait?

Gold price forecasts for the coming days suggest a potential upward path but not without volatility. Fundamental factors—investment demand, central bank purchases, supply-demand gap, and easing monetary environment—all support higher prices.

But short-term corrections are inevitable, and investors will take profits at certain points. Gold won’t rise in a straight line to $5,000.

The key message: If real yields continue to decline and the dollar weakens, gold is poised to maintain its safe-haven status and reach new record levels. Conversely, if confidence returns to traditional financial markets, we may see a sharp demand decline.

The opportunity exists, but caution regarding market volatility is essential.