2026-01-05 08:20:19

2026 has arrived, and Bitcoin has just closed another annual cycle. Looking at the 2025 chart reveals an interesting phenomenon—this is the first year to end with a decline on the yearly line after the halving.

In the past, we have summarized a market rule: the year after a halving, Bitcoin tends to perform strongly. Historical data supports this view: 2013, 2017, and 2021 all followed this pattern. However, in 2025, the established rule seems to have been distorted.

Why is this happening? It reflects the evolution of market cycles. As the cryptocurrency market matures, with increasing institutional funds and changing macro environments, traditional halving cycle patterns are beginning to show new characteristics. Relying solely on historical cycles for predictions increases the risk.

The performance in 2025 tells us that market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions can sometimes have a greater influence than technical cycle patterns. Investors need to adopt a more comprehensive view—not only tracking on-chain data and price cycles but also paying attention to policy environments, capital flows, and changes in market participant structures. The halving event itself has already been fully priced in; the real opportunity lies in understanding shifts in market expectations.

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DefiOldTrickster

· 1h ago

Haha, the year when the pattern breaks. I’ve been playing since 2013 in my hometown, and I’ve really never seen a situation where the price drops after the halving. The old tricks don’t work anymore, which means—institutions have come in and changed the game rules, while retail investors are still using the old map. The real arbitrage opportunity is actually here. Don’t focus on the cycle; watching the flow of funds is the key. The annualized return is worth much more than the halving event itself.

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ProbablyNothing

· 1h ago

Has the halving cycle become invalid? Now the old methods need to change. Just looking at on-chain data is no longer enough.

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BTCBeliefStation

· 16h ago

The pattern has been broken; the halving narrative needs to be updated. This time is truly different; once institutions come in, the game rules change. Macroeconomic steering is key; technical cycles are just decorations, it should have been clear long ago. The halving has been fully understood for a long time; now, policies and capital are the real factors. Speaking of the 2025 crash, can we still trust historical data? On-chain data is heating up, but we still need to keep an eye on real-world issues. Mature markets are like this; all the once-infallible strategies have become ineffective.

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LootboxPhobia

· 01-05 08:50

The pattern is broken; this time the halving strategy really failed.

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BtcDailyResearcher

· 01-05 08:35

The pattern has broken. This time, it's really different. Institutions have front-loaded the halving rally, leaving retail investors with nothing. Macro is the real boss; technical analysis is becoming less and less reliable.

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GasFeeAssassin

· 01-05 08:33

The halving pattern has failed, now I realize that historical cycles are not foolproof. Institutional entry has changed the entire game, no wonder 2025 is so awkward.

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BearMarketHustler

· 01-05 08:31

The pattern has broken, the halving buff is really gone. What's going on? The institutions came in but couldn't push the price up? I always thought halving would definitely lead to a rise, but now it seems I was completely wrong. When macro selling pressure increases, technical analysis is just a paper tiger. I've woken up. Pricing theory has won again; retail investors can never keep up with the pace of institutions.

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GateUser-2fce706c

· 01-05 08:22

I've already said it, the thing about patterns is that they need to be applied flexibly; if you stubbornly stick to historical cycles, you'll just end up getting harvested.

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