#量子计算威胁 Recently, the discussions around quantum computing have become a bit tiresome.

On one side, Nic Carter says 1.7 million Bitcoins are at risk of being attacked, creating anxiety; on the other side, Adam Back, Wang Chun, and others say it's a bubble and there's no issue in the short term. Guess what I think? Both sides have problems.

To start with the conclusion: quantum computing indeed poses a threat to Bitcoin, but not now. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp's attitude is the most realistic—no worries in the short term, but the upgrade will take 5 to 10 years. This time window is very real.

But I must warn about the pitfalls here. Nic Carter's fund has invested in a company selling "quantum-resistant tools," which says a lot. Creating anxiety and then selling solutions—I've seen this routine too many times in altcoins and gold-farming games. Don't fall for this kind of "crisis marketing."

What you should really be cautious about is another matter—the controversy itself reveals a split within the Bitcoin community. Michael Saylor is right; any protocol change requires global consensus, which is far more difficult than the technical challenge itself. When a real threat arrives, can the community push the upgrade simultaneously? That’s the key.

So there's no need to panic now, but also don’t pretend this isn’t an issue. The most practical approach is to keep observing and trust that core developers are preparing contingency plans. History has shown that the real risk isn’t technical but human nature and conflicts of interest.