#2026年比特币行情展望 Will the crypto market survive this week? The combination punch of Non-Farm Payrolls + Federal Reserve officials' speeches is coming 💥

Time is tight; here are the key events (UTC+8 timezone):

Early Monday at 01:30, Kashkari's speech will set the tone for upcoming policy directions. On Tuesday at 21:00, Barkin will speak, giving the market a glimpse of the inflation and employment stance. Wednesday at 21:15, ADP data will be released, serving as a precursor to Non-Farm Payrolls and likely to cause early volatility. Thursday at 21:30, the initial unemployment claims report will be published, providing a direct indicator of labor market strength. Friday at 21:30, the real bomb drops—Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate are announced simultaneously, determining the market’s mood. By 23:00 on Friday, Kashkari will speak again, often amplifying market volatility. @BTC@ will react noticeably during this period.

How to interpret this week’s market? Several scenarios—

**Scenario 1: Economic data far exceeds expectations**
This indicates the economy is still overheating, and the Fed’s rate hike pause will be delayed. The dollar will start to appreciate, and funds will flow out of crypto markets seeking higher returns. Bitcoin and Ethereum may face a 3%-5% correction. Leverage traders should be especially cautious, as the risk of liquidation is real.

**Scenario 2: Data shows weak performance**
Expectations of recession will rise, and the market’s appetite for rate cuts will grow. The dollar may weaken instead. When traditional assets are under pressure, safe-haven funds often flow into cryptocurrencies. Major coins have a good chance of rebounding over 5%.

**Scenario 3: Data shows mixed results**
No significant positive or negative surprises, so focus shifts to the wording of Fed officials. Hawkish comments will suppress the market, while dovish statements will trigger rebounds. The market will likely oscillate within a range. In this environment, a strategy of buying dips and selling rallies is recommended—avoid the mindset of buying and holding without selling.

There are quite a few twists this week; be prepared.