Polymarket's "No" side betting on "Christ's Second Coming" can earn a 5.5% annualized return, outperforming U.S. Treasury bonds

According to Coin.com, a contract on the prediction market Polymarket surrounding “whether Jesus Christ will return to earth in 2025” has attracted about $3.3 million in 2025. Participants who bet on “it won’t happen” at the April high earned an annualized return of about 5.5%, outperforming even Treasury yields over the same period, as the event ultimately ruled “no.” The report pointed out that the contract once maintained the probability of “second coming” at more than 3%, reflecting the pricing characteristics of the prediction market under the interweaving of emotions, beliefs and speculation. Bloomberg also pointed out that similar contracts have increased the attention of the prediction market, but they have also caused controversy in the academic community. Some scholars believe that such highly entertaining or symbolic events may undermine the information value of prediction markets in serious public issues. With the contract re-launched in the 2026 version, the current market still gives an event a probability of about 2%, reflecting the prediction market’s continued attraction of speculative funds under the “low probability, high return” narrative. （Bloomberg）