$23.7 billion options settlement imminent, Bitcoin liquidity test countdown begins

The macro market turning point has arrived

The Bitcoin futures options market is about to face a “liquidation” moment—$23.7 billion in massive futures contracts are counting down. This trading volume has hit a new all-time high, indicating that the market is at a critical threshold. Currently, BTC price fluctuates around $91.17K, and the previous weeks’ suppression within the $85K to $90K range is beginning to loosen.

The locked-in price “shackles” are about to break

Over the past few weeks, market behavior has shown clear signs of artificial suppression. Where does this suppression come from? Market makers have engaged in large-scale buying and selling to hedge risks, forming an invisible price ceiling. This “ceiling” keeps the price tightly pinned, like a spring compressed to its limit, accumulating enormous potential energy.

The evidence is right before our eyes—today, Binance’s real-time quote experienced extreme volatility, with prices plunging from $87K to $24K before quickly rebounding. This scare reveals that current market liquidity is severely lacking, and even minor buy-sell imbalances can trigger intense shocks. This is a pre-delivery market rehearsal; the real liquidity test will come after the settlement is completed.

Technical signals are beginning to show bullish divergence

Notably, technical indicators are starting to display bullish divergence patterns. This suggests that selling pressure may be gradually weakening, and the medium- to long-term upward momentum is quietly accumulating. Once the market makers’ hedging buy-sell suppression disappears, this long-held energy will transform into genuine market driving force.

Strategic advice from a macro perspective

From a macro viewpoint, this delivery is not a decisive directional indicator, but it will trigger significant volatility in the short term:

First, guard against short-term risks: In the hours to a day after settlement, volatility will reach its peak. Traders with high leverage should temporarily avoid positions until the market regains rationality.

Second, monitor technical support levels: The $85K to $88K range constitutes an important support zone. Observing whether the price can hold this area will determine the subsequent rebound height.

Third, focus on long-term logic: The massive delivery itself is the best proof of market depth and institutional participation. Short-term technical fluctuations will eventually subside, and the market will ultimately be driven by macroeconomic cycles, capital flows, and fundamental factors.

The final battle and the signal for a new trend

This delivery can be regarded as the final showdown of the Bitcoin market in 2025, and it may also serve as the starting gun for a new wave of market trends in 2026. The true strength of the market will be revealed after the settlement at 4 PM. Regardless of the outcome, investors should view short-term volatility through a macro lens and avoid being swayed by panic emotions.