ZEC surges to 505, and the bears' losses expand to 20 million USD! Will the rally to 600 pull back to 400? The technical analysis provides the answer.

On-Chain Data Reveals the Battle Between Major Players

ZEC has recently experienced a fierce rally, attracting market attention. According to the latest on-chain data, the largest short position in this asset has expanded to $20 million, with unrealized losses reaching 113%. This data reflects not just simple bearish bets, but a psychological game between bulls and bears.

Currently, the market presents an interesting contrast: bulls are continuously accumulating with 3x leverage, realizing $6.5 million in unrealized profits; meanwhile, bears, even though trapped near an average price of $417, are still adding to their positions. Behind this relentless operation, large capital often influences market sentiment and participant psychology through account fluctuations.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum but Risks Cannot Be Ignored

From a technical perspective, ZEC (Zcash) is currently trading around $505.41. The 1-hour chart shows a clear upward trend, with MACD forming a golden cross, and the price pushing upward along the moving average system, reflecting sustained bullish energy.

However, it is important to note that RSI and the Money Flow Index (MFI) are both entering overbought territory, indicating excessive gains and increased short-term correction risk. There is significant resistance in the 600-660 range; breaking through this zone requires volume support. On the downside, the 452 and 400 levels form two support floors; once these key levels are touched, the probability of a rebound increases.

The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, with moving averages supporting around 420. The current sideways consolidation is a normal adjustment process, and a new breakout in either direction is highly likely.

Trading Strategy and Risk Management

For participants holding long positions, it is recommended to maintain holdings above the key level of $525. As long as this support is not effectively broken and the price remains stable, holding can continue. Meanwhile, traders holding short positions should also focus on the $525 level to confirm whether it can serve as support.

For observers, it is advisable to establish long positions in the $530-$525 range or lightly build short positions in the $610-$580 range. During trading, set stop-loss and take-profit orders, and keep sufficient trading capital to adapt to market changes, avoiding single trades that could deplete funds.

Market Outlook

Large traders’ aggressive actions are often not indicative of losses but are more about influencing the overall market rhythm through account changes. The current daily trend still points upward, with solid moving average support around 420. Although overbought signals exist, they also indicate that bullish strength has not yet exhausted. After a period of consolidation, ZEC will either surge to higher levels or confirm a correction direction. Precise entry points require close attention to real-time price movements.