Bitcoin's $70K-$150K Tug-of-War: Technical Signals vs. Chain Data Paint Conflicting Picture

Bitcoin is caught in a high-stakes showdown between technical bullishness and on-chain warning signs, with traders radically disagreeing on where prices head next. While the flagship cryptocurrency currently sits near $91.39K—up 1.88% over the past day—the market remains deeply fractured over whether a relief rally to $100K+ or a correction toward $70K is imminent.

The Case for a Powerful Breakout Rally

After holding within a $5,000 trading band for eight consecutive days, Bitcoin appears primed for a directional move. Several prominent analysts see upside potential, drawing on established technical patterns and historical precedent.

Ted Pillows, a closely followed market analyst, points to bullish RSI divergences as a key indicator. Comparing current setups to similar patterns during the 2021 bull run, he suggests Bitcoin could rally toward $98,000-$100,000 as a relief bounce. His broader concern focuses on the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), which historically triggers sharp corrections when crossing certain thresholds—a factor that may limit downside risk in the near term.

Trader Captain Faibik echoes this constructive sentiment, predicting that a breakout could unleash waves of FOMO-driven buying. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Korinek_Trades forecasts Bitcoin completing a five-wave structure with potential targets at $150,000, suggesting room for substantial appreciation.

Chain Data Raises Red Flags

However, a starkly different picture emerges when examining on-chain metrics. CryptoQuant has flagged mounting downside risks, particularly around Bitcoin’s previous resistance zone near $70,000. According to analysis from CryptoOnchain, significant inflows into a major exchange—totaling approximately $1.4 billion in BTC—suggest heightened selling pressure. These substantial deposits into exchange wallets typically precede price corrections as holders prepare to exit positions.

The research highlights that demand zones between $70,000 and $72,000 could act as natural support, attracting accumulated buying if prices fall that far. Yet the sheer volume of BTC sitting on exchange balance sheets indicates the market is vulnerable to sharp downside moves.

What This Means for Price Action

Bitcoin remains at an inflection point where technical indicators and fundamentals offer competing narratives. The narrow consolidation band, combined with weekly timeframe volatility, suggests a significant breakout is imminent—but direction remains hotly contested. For international investors, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin price movements ripple across forex pairs as well; for context, 485 USD to CAD conversion shows how global macro conditions influence cryptocurrency valuations.

The current divergence between bullish technical setups and cautious on-chain signals reflects genuine uncertainty. Whether Bitcoin rallies toward $100K+ or corrects back to $70K may ultimately depend on whether this week’s close produces fresh momentum or triggers profit-taking at resistance levels.