2025-12-25 21:21:24

The market is soaked in blood, and fear is pervasive. But a closer look at the trading data suggests the story might not be that simple.

Last night, the non-farm payroll data was released, and Bitcoin once again experienced a rollercoaster ride. News of 140,000 traders being liquidated across the network flooded the internet, but behind this chaos, there is an interesting phenomenon worth pondering — market sentiment and on-chain data are diverging in an unusual way.

On one side, the Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to a historic low of 10, engulfing the entire market in an "extreme fear" atmosphere. On the other side, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has quietly entered the most attractive range since the end of the 2022 bear market. What does this divergence really indicate?

Looking at the trading charts, you’ll see Bitcoin struggling to hold the $86,000 support level, while Ethereum teeters above $2,900. The screen is filled with blood-red candlesticks, and market sentiment is panicked. However, the intensity of this emotion seems a bit excessive.

Comparing with history, during the real systemic crises like the COVID-19 pandemic shock in 2020 and the Luna collapse in 2022, the market faced actual problems such as major defaults and credit chain breaks. This time? There are no signs of similar credit collapses. The disconnect between sentiment and reality is obvious — in plain terms, retail investors are wailing, while institutions are quietly positioning themselves.

From a technical perspective, there is indeed pressure. The lower boundary of Bitcoin’s broad $88,000–$90,000 oscillation range on the daily chart has been broken, indicating a short-term correction. But it’s precisely because of such declines and panic that genuine players are given an opportunity to step in. Markets always experience a cold snap amid extreme emotions, then rebirth amid widespread doubt.

BTC1.25%

ETH0.94%

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RooftopReserver

· 8h ago

Retail investors wail as institutions scoop the bottom; I could memorize this routine with my eyes closed. It's the same old story of the fear index hitting bottom—enough, enough, it's time to get on board, everyone. 14,000 people wiped out vs. institutions eating the cake—it's always the same show. The Sharpe ratio is speaking, and you're still crying over the K-line? Wake up. There was no major crash this time; it was just emotional overreaction. Retail investors should reflect. After the late cold snap comes spring, and I bet this time is no different. If the $86,000 level can't hold, perfect—institutions have been waiting for this opportunity. Honestly, this was much worse than the Luna incident; this isn't a systemic crisis, just leverage killing people in seconds. When the screen is all red, it's often the best opportunity. The question is, do you dare to take the plunge?

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GasFeeWhisperer

· 8h ago

Retail investors scream, big players eat meat, this time it's a matter of who sees through first

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BlockchainNewbie

· 8h ago

Retail investors crying to death, institutions laughing to death. When 140,000 people get liquidated, it's the big players bottom-fishing; this routine happens every year. --- Fear index at 10, Sharpe ratio hitting a new high? Basically, it's a bottom signal. How can some people still not see it? --- Again comparing Luna, the pandemic, now it's obvious there's no systemic risk, just pure emotional venting. --- If 86k can't hold, then it can't hold. Anyway, I believe this drop is a good opportunity, so go ahead and buy. --- When the screen is all red, it's the biggest test of mentality. True players have already been eating up the chips. --- Institutions are betting, retail investors are cutting losses, an eternal cycle.

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SnapshotBot

· 8h ago

When retail investors are crying and shouting, big players are already bottom fishing. This wave is indeed a bit of an overreaction. Are institutions still calling orders on the platform while you're laying out your plans? Wake up, everyone. Well said, Luna was truly a crisis; this time it's just an emotional game. Wait, do you really believe that institutions are secretly laying out? I see them all cutting their losses one by one. Sharpe ratio entering the historically attractive range? Then why am I still losing my last penny? After experiencing Luna, dare to say this isn't a crisis? I think your memory isn't very good. Under the blood-red K-line, someone has already bottomed out at 80,000 yuan. It all depends on who has a good mindset. Retail investors' fear is the institution's dinner; an old saying goes, "Close enough."

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RunWhenCut

· 8h ago

When retail investors are wailing, big players are already eating up the chips. This wave is really just an emotional overreaction. --- Breaking 88,000 isn't scary; what's scary is having no bullets. --- That was real terror with Luna; this time is just a routine adjustment, don't be scared by the screen. --- The Sharpe ratio is talking, the fear index is screaming, who should we believe? --- 140,000 liquidations show what? Too many leveraged traders. I'm just here drinking tea without leverage. --- How many times have I said that institutional布局 has always been retail investors ending up holding the bag. --- Ethereum at 2900, bottoming out or continuing to fall, this is a tough question. --- The real crisis is the breakdown of the credit chain; right now, it's just the K-line scaring people. --- Let's wait and see. History always repeats itself; it's just a matter of cycle length. --- When the screen is all red, it tests your mentality the most. Only those who can hold on are the winners.

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CompoundPersonality

· 8h ago

Retail investors scream as institutions accumulate, I've seen this show countless times, when will they finally learn their lesson Is it bottom fishing or family fishing? It all depends on whether you're a true player Once again, emotion and data diverge; simply put, it's panic selling 140,000 people got liquidated, indicating that leverage traders are getting too excited again. The technical breakdown is a fact, but have you really faced a crisis at Luna's level? This is the time to hoard coins and make a killing, while chasing rallies and selling in dips will only get you trapped

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