Global Tin Market Tightening: Supply Constraints Drive Price Rally and Producer Dynamics in 2024

The global tin landscape underwent significant shifts in 2023, with worldwide production dropping 2.1% to reach 370,100 metric tons as macroeconomic headwinds dampened demand. China and Myanmar dominated the extraction phase, collectively accounting for substantial global output, while refining capacity concentrated among a select group of major players.

According to the International Tin Association, the 2023 decline coupled with robust demand fundamentals created a market surplus of 9,700 tons. However, emerging supply disruptions—particularly from Myanmar’s Wa State and Indonesian operations—are reshaping market dynamics. These constraints are already materializing, with tin prices climbing to 21-month highs this April. The association projects that improving macroeconomic conditions and positive seasonal demand could trigger fresh investment flows into tin futures as supply tightness intensifies through 2024.

Fastmarkets analysts highlight that Myanmar’s geopolitical uncertainties will remain a key price support mechanism, while recovering end-user demand and better-than-expected macroeconomic signals should attract institutional capital back into the tin complex. This convergence of factors positions refined tin producers as critical players in the global supply chain.

Refined Tin Production Leaders Shape Market Supply

The world’s top 10 refined tin producers collectively control approximately 59% of global output, making them instrumental in determining market balance. Here’s how the leading producers stack up:

Yunnan Tin Company (SZSE: 000960) leads by a commanding margin with 80,100 metric tons produced in 2023—a 4% year-over-year increase. As a Shenzhen Stock Exchange-listed entity and subsidiary of state-owned Yunnan Tin Group with roots dating to 1883, the company also operates China’s largest precious metals R&D center.

Minsur, Peru’s privately held giant, produced 31,700 MT last year (including Brazilian subsidiary Taboca’s contribution), though this represented a 3.1% decline from 2022. The company operates the San Rafael mine in South America, responsible for roughly 12% of global tin production and considered the region’s premier mining asset since 1977.

Yunnan Chengfeng Non-ferrous Metals strengthened its position as China’s second-largest producer, delivering 21,800 MT in 2023—a 5.8% uptick that solidified its rank as the world’s third-largest refiner. Beyond tin, the 1994-founded firm produces indium, silver, gold, lead, bismuth and antimony.

Malaysia Smelting (KLSE: MSC) surged into fourth place with 20,700 MT, up 10.1% annually, outpacing competitors. Operating as a Straits Trading Company subsidiary since 1887, the firm excels in integrated tin production and custom smelting capabilities.

Indonesia’s Tin Story and Emerging Challenges

PT Timah (IDX: TINS), established in 1976 and Indonesia’s flagship state-owned tin manufacturer, faced headwinds in 2023. The company’s output plummeted 22.7% year-over-year to just 15,300 MT, reflecting mounting operational pressures. Once the world’s top producer in 2019 when it dominated through offtake arrangements, PT Timah’s production trajectory has reversed sharply. Corruption investigations into commodities trading reportedly compound the firm’s manufacturing constraints. This decline underscores broader challenges facing Indonesia’s tin sector—a critical concern for global penghasil timah supplies, especially given Indonesia’s position as the region’s largest potential contributor.

Mid-Tier Producers and Growth Dynamics

Guangxi China Tin, China’s third-largest tin company, produced 12,000 MT—a 10.1% increase that maintained its sixth-place standing. The 1990-established private firm diversifies into indium, lead, antimony, zinc, silver, cadmium and bismuth.

Empresa Metalúrgica Vinto (Bolivia) moved up one notch to seventh with 10,000 MT despite a near-3% production dip. The state-owned smelter processes materials from mining cooperatives and small-scale operators but faces coal supply disruptions stemming from socio-political unrest in neighboring Peru.

Jiangxi New Nanshan slipped to eighth place after a 12% production decline to 9,500 MT. The company entered global markets more recently, with its first smelter coming online in 2009.

European and Asian Refiners Hold Ground

Aurubis Beerse (Belgium) captured ninth position with 9,300 MT—a robust 13.4% year-over-year surge—becoming Europe’s largest tin producer. The private firm operates a unique recycling facility processing secondary raw materials for copper, tin, lead and nickel production.

Thailand Smelting and Refining (Thaisarco), founded in 1963 and managed by UK-based Amalgamated Metal since 1995, rounded out the top 10 with 9,200 MT in 2023, down 3.2% annually. Recent offtake agreements with Andrada Mining secure supply from Namibia’s Uis mine through 2026.

Market Outlook and Investment Implications

The tightening supply backdrop combined with cyclical demand recovery positions these refined tin producers as beneficiaries of the current market environment. Investors monitoring the sector should pay particular attention to supply chain vulnerabilities in Myanmar and Indonesia, where geopolitical and operational risks could further constrain global availability. For those seeking exposure to tin through producer equities, understanding each company’s cost structure, reserves position and geographic diversification remains essential.