Zhang Weili Faces Defending Champion Shevchenko at UFC 322: Oddsmakers Call It a Toss-Up

The Odds Tell an Interesting Story

When BetOnline first released the betting lines for the UFC 322 co-main event matchup, Zhang Weili emerged as the clear -140 favorite against the defending champion Valentina Shevchenko, who opened at +120 as an underdog. However, the betting market has shown significant movement in recent weeks. The contest has now settled into near-even territory, with Shevchenko sitting at -105 while the former strawweight titleholder Zhang comes in at -115. This shifting line suggests bettors are increasingly confident in the Kyrgyzstani fighter’s ability to overcome a weight disadvantage against an opponent making a bold move up the divisional ranks.

The Main Event Mirrors the Co-Main Event Pattern

UFC 322 presents an intriguing thematic structure: both the main event and co-main event feature a current champion facing a former titleholder attempting to move up in weight. In the main event, newly crowned UFC welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena will defend his crown against Islam Makhachev, the former lightweight kingpin who has decided to step up in competition. The co-main event follows suit with Shevchenko holding the flyweight belt against an ambitious challenger looking to capture gold at a second weight class.

Shevchenko’s Dominance in the Flyweight Division

Valentina Shevchenko (25-4-1) has established herself as perhaps the most decorated fighter in the modern UFC women’s divisions. After joining the promotion in December 2015 as a late replacement on a FOX card, Shevchenko spent her first four UFC fights competing at bantamweight, posting a 2-2 record that included victories over Holly Holm and Julianna Pena alongside two losses—both by decision—to Amanda Nunes.

The turning point came when Shevchenko dropped to 125 pounds. What followed stands as one of the greatest runs in UFC women’s history. She demolished Priscila Cachoeira in her flyweight debut, then captured the vacant championship via decision over Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She successfully defended that title seven consecutive times before suffering a shocking loss to Alexa Grasso at UFC 285. The two fighters then battled to a split draw before Shevchenko reclaimed her throne in the trilogy matchup at UFC 306.

Most recently, at UFC 315 in May 2025, Shevchenko made the first defense of her second title reign with a convincing unanimous decision victory over Manon Fiorot. Her statistical dominance in the division is staggering: 11 wins, 4 KO/TKO victories, a 9-fight winning streak, 10 title fight wins, over four hours of total fight time, and remarkably low striking absorption at just 1.86 strikes per minute absorbed.

Alex Zhang’s Quest for Second Championship Glory

Zhang Weili (26-3), at 36 years old, represents a fighter in her prime attempting one of combat sports’ riskiest gambles: moving up in weight class to pursue another UFC championship. The Chinese fighter first claimed UFC gold at 115 pounds in August 2019, securing a TKO victory over Jessica Andrade at the 42-second mark of their UFC Fight Night clash in China.

Zhang defended her first strawweight title reign once, earning a split decision over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2020. However, Rose Namajunas ended that championship run with a spectacular head kick knockout just 78 seconds into UFC 261 in April 2021. The rematch saw Namajunas retain the belt via split decision in November 2021.

Rather than fade, Zhang demonstrated resilience by defeating Jedrzejczyk again in June 2022, this time by knockout. She recaptured the 115-pound championship in November 2022 with a submission win over Carla Esparza, launching her second title reign. During this run, Zhang made three consecutive successful defenses: a decision over Amanda Lemos in August 2023, a victory against Yan Xiaonan at UFC 300, and most recently, a decision win over Tatiana Suarez in the co-main event of UFC 312 in February 2025.

Now, as Zhang makes the significant move to flyweight, she faces perhaps the most challenging test of her career. The size, speed, and technical mastery of Shevchenko will test whether Zhang’s championship pedigree translates across divisional lines or if ambition exceeds capability on fight night.

A Title Clash for the Ages

The UFC 322 co-main event represents more than just a fight between two former champions. It embodies the eternal question in mixed martial arts: can a fighter’s championship resumé and competitive heart overcome the inherent disadvantages of moving up in weight to face an established divisional dynasty? With the betting odds now virtually even, the combat sports world awaits what promises to be a compelling contest.