BTC is at the $95K death line, retail investors cut losses vs institutions layout.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin's performance has been a bit hard to bear. From a high of $104K it fell to $99K, then rebounded to $102K. Is this intense fluctuation the beginning of a new Bear Market, or is it a market maker whipsaw?

Retail investors are fleeing, and the market makers are reducing their positions.

Key data has arrived: Long-term holders (LTH) are cashing out like crazy. Since July, they have sold more than 3.62 million BTC, averaging 3,100 coins per day. The last three weeks have been even more outrageous — directly pulling up to an average of 9,000 coins per day.

From another perspective, the realized profit of LTH has skyrocketed from 600 billion USD in June to 754 billion USD now. Based on an average selling price of $110K, this group has thrown away a total of 2.1 million coins.

At the same time, on-chain data shows that there is a selling pressure of $3.4 billion every month. In the past, this volume could be supported by ETFs and company buybacks, but now institutions are on the sidelines—some have even changed their minds and are buying back their own stocks.

Leverage Explosion, Cold Emotions

Just look at the futures market and you'll understand. The funding rate for perpetual futures has been cut by 62% from 338 million USD/month in August, and now it's only 127 million USD/month. In translation: leveraged traders have started to liquidate their positions, and retail investors are fleeing.

What's more heartbreaking is that $95K has now become the line between life and death. According to on-chain cost analysis, currently 63% of the investment capital cost base is above $95K, which means that once it falls below this level, nearly $20 billion in unrealized losses will be unleashed. Historically, Bear Markets are usually triggered when unrealized losses exceed 10%.

Currently only 3% - it looks like there is still space, but it's already very tight.

Macroeconomic Factors at Play

There's also an invisible killer: the U.S. government shutdown. This shutdown has frozen $150 billion in treasury accounts, directly draining the liquidity that should have flowed into high-risk assets.

BitMEX co-founder Hayes pointed out that since the debt ceiling was raised in July, the overall dollar liquidity has shrunk by 8%, and BTC has also fallen by 5%—these two are tightly bound.

What do the big shots think?

Optimists: Hayes believes that this is just a temporary shortage of dollar liquidity. Once the government reopens and the central bank resumes the expansion of its balance sheet, the dollar will flood back, and BTC will initiate a new bull market.

Cautious faction: Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan likens this wave to “the story of two markets”—retail investors are cutting losses while institutions are accumulating at low levels. Although he is optimistic about the long term (predicting $1.3 million by 2035), he also acknowledges that the days of 100x annual returns are long gone.

Data Party: On-chain analyst Check summarizes it this way: “In 2025, there was a huge rotation of currencies, mostly above $95K. We don't want to see a break below $95K, but I also expect the bulls to fight to hold it. Get ready to watch the Bear Market, but don't believe in doomsday theories.”

Key Highlights

• If $95K holds → it may be a mid-term adjustment, waiting for liquidity to return.
• If it falls below $95K → it may trigger a chain stop-loss, significantly increasing the risk.
• Institutions are building positions at low levels vs retail investors are cutting losses = a typical power transition period

The current situation is: the market is contesting the psychological barrier. Do you believe this is the prelude to a Bear Market, or do you believe institutions are stepping in? This determines your trading logic.