#Gate xStocks 交易体验

The key variable lies in the lagging effects of tariffs. Powell pointed out that the transmission of tariffs to prices may manifest in the coming months, with inflation data from June to August possibly showing a "significant increase." One possible explanation is that companies previously alleviated short-term shocks by stockpiling in advance, but as inventory is depleted, rising import costs will gradually push up final prices. If inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve may be forced to postpone interest rate cuts, or even pause the easing cycle, further reinforcing expectations of stagflation.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the policy path remains highly uncertain. The non-farm payroll and CPI data in July will be key decision-making references. If the data confirms that inflationary pressures are manageable, the Federal Reserve may proceed with the planned interest rate cut in September; if inflation exceeds expectations, the market may face the impact of "hawkish delay," potentially even recreating the stagflation dilemma of the 1970s. In this game of interest rate cuts versus stagflation, every decision made by the Federal Reserve will profoundly affect the direction of the global market.