Robinhood tokenizes stocks on Arbitrum, SpaceX launches IPO

Headlines

▌Robinhood Tokenizes Stocks on Arbitrum

Token Terminal posted on X platform that Robinhood has tokenized stocks on Arbitrum, with the total market cap of tokenized stocks recently surpassing $13 million. Johann Kerbrat stated, “Ethereum provides us with native security guarantees, while Arbitrum gives us the engineering flexibility we need.”

▌SpaceX Initiates IPO Process, Seeks Wall Street Investment Bank Consultation

Sources reveal that SpaceX executives are starting to select Wall Street banks for IPO advisory services. The investment banks are scheduled to give preliminary presentations next week, representing the most concrete step toward a potentially major IPO for this rocket manufacturer. Last Friday, SpaceX informed employees that the company is preparing for a possible public offering next year. Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX is also seeking a secondary stock sale, with an estimated valuation of about $800 billion, higher than this summer’s $400 billion.

Market Overview

As of press time, according to CoinGecko data:

BTC price is $87,787.79, 24h change -2.7%;
ETH price is $3,049.73, 24h change -2.0%;
BNB price is $874.09, 24h change -2.4%;
SOL price is $129.22, 24h change -2.8%;
DOGE price is $0.1338, 24h change -3.7%;
XRP price is $1.98, 24h change -2.1%;
TRX price is $0.2767, 24h change +2.1%;
WLFI price is $0.1368, 24h change -5.1%;
HYPE price is $28.75, 24h change -1.6%.

Policies

▌Wu Jiezhang: No Major Changes Expected in Hong Kong Stablecoin Development, Will Continue Steady Progress

Hong Kong legislator Wu Jiezhang posted on social media, stating, “There have been many questions about Hong Kong’s Web3 development, including the future of stablecoins, RWA development, etc. Since I was involved in the election campaign and didn’t respond in detail at the time, I want to share my views now: I believe Hong Kong’s stablecoin development will not have major changes and will continue to move forward steadily. The Stablecoin Bill was passed in the 7th Legislative Council after long deliberation. I believe the overall development will align with the actual financial environment both internationally and in Hong Kong, starting with local market trials, aiming to develop into the international market, leveraging Hong Kong’s position as a financial and innovation hub. RWA is a hot topic in both traditional and Web3 sectors currently. Hong Kong has already promoted a regulatory sandbox, which I believe will explore the importance of compliant development and future regulation within the sandbox. I think different industries can boldly experiment with Web3 technologies, which will likely promote substantial real-world applications. Developer demand is rapidly increasing. Over the past three years, Hong Kong has attracted numerous Web3 companies through open policies, and related development needs are rising correspondingly. The Hong Kong SAR government has been actively promoting development of the Northern Metropolis and the Lok Ma Chau Loop, not only attracting enterprises but also driving talent. An increasing number of companies in Web3 blockchain, compliant exchanges, and underlying infrastructure are establishing presence in Hong Kong. In my early entrepreneurial days, I started as a developer and deeply understand that the success of developers and tech companies is closely linked. I will help build a talent ecosystem in the industry, promoting more developers and practitioners to settle in Hong Kong.”

▌Korean Regulators Fail to Submit KRW Stablecoin Regulation Bill on Time

Earlier this month, South Korea’s ruling party urged ministries and the Financial Services Commission (FSC) to submit a KRW stablecoin regulation bill by December 10, but FSC did not meet the deadline. An FSC spokesperson said that the FSC needs more time to coordinate positions with relevant agencies. Instead of rushing to complete the proposal before the deadline, it is better to publish the proposal simultaneously with its submission to the National Assembly to ensure public awareness.

▌Polish Cabinet Approves Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Regulations Pending Presidential Signature

According to market sources, Poland’s cabinet has officially approved the Bitcoin and crypto regulations, which will now be submitted to the president for signing.

Blockchain Applications

▌Ethereum Community Proposes “Associated Accounts” Standard ERC-8092

According to Merlijn The Trader, the Ethereum community has proposed ERC-8092: a new “Associated Accounts” identity standard. This standard will enable accounts to: publicly sign and verify account relationships create sub-accounts securely delegate permissions build portable on-chain reputation seamlessly collaborate across different blockchains and Layer2s. The proposal is now live on Ethereum Magicians and GitHub.

▌Aave Governance Forum Sparks Heated Debate Over CoW Swap Fee Distribution

The core development team behind Aave, Aave Labs, and the Aave DAO, which manages the protocol, are at odds over recent fee-sharing issues related to the integration with decentralized exchange aggregator CoW Swap. The controversy continues to escalate. This issue was raised by anonymous Aave DAO member EzR3aL, who pointed out that fees generated from crypto asset swaps via CoW Swap are not going into the DAO treasury but are flowing into a designated on-chain address. In fact, these fees ultimately go to a private address controlled by Aave Labs. EzR3aL raised multiple questions, including why the DAO was not consulted before fee flow adjustments and whether these fees should belong to the DAO. He stated, “At least $200,000 worth of ETH flows into some entity’s pocket weekly, not the Aave DAO.” He further added that this could mean the DAO’s potential annual income is as high as $10 million. Aave Labs responded that the front-end components and interface rights are always legally owned by them.

▌YO Labs Completes $10 Million Series A Funding, Foundation Capital Leads

YO Protocol’s development team, YO Labs, announced the completion of a $10 million Series A funding round led by Foundation Capital, with participation from Coinbase Ventures, Scribble Ventures, and Launchpad Capital. To date, total funding has reached $24 million. The company plans to use this capital to expand its revenue-optimized protocol across more blockchains and improve its infrastructure.

Cryptocurrency Insights

▌Barclays: No Major Catalysts, 2026 Will Be a “Down Year” for Crypto Markets Without Major Triggers

Barclays predicts that crypto trading volume in 2026 may decline, citing no clear catalysts to boost market activity. The bank notes that slowing spot market growth is pressuring retail-focused platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood. Despite multiple headwinds in the short term, regulatory clarity—including pending market structure legislation—could set the stage for long-term growth.

▌10x Research: Disagrees with “Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Broken” View, But Market May No Longer Anchor to Halving

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x, stated in a recent interview that the “four-year cycle” of Bitcoin has not disappeared, but the core drivers no longer anchor to halving events. Bitcoin hit all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This year, despite the Fed’s recent rate cuts, Bitcoin did not regain strong upward momentum. Institutional investors have become the dominant force, acting more cautiously. With the Fed’s signals still uncertain and overall liquidity tightening, the pace of capital inflows has slowed, weakening the momentum for sustained price breakthroughs. Until liquidity significantly improves, Bitcoin is more likely to stay in range-bound oscillations rather than entering a new parabolic rally.

▌Michael Saylor Reiterates Bitcoin Tracker, Hinting at Additional BTC Accumulation

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, reposted information about Bitcoin Tracker. Historically, Strategy discloses accumulation news the day after related announcements.

▌Cathie Wood: Crypto Market May Have Bottomed, Bitcoin Remains Top Choice for Institutions

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood said that during the October 11 flash crash, Bitcoin had the strongest liquidity among all cryptocurrencies, often being sold first and dragging down other coins. Other tokens suffered larger declines. She believes the market may have bottomed after digesting this information. Cathie emphasized that Bitcoin represents a new global currency system and asset class, making it the top choice and starting point for institutional entry into crypto, and should be prioritized in asset allocation. Regarding Ethereum and Solana, she noted shifts in narratives. Ethereum is the infrastructure choice for institutions, with second-layer solutions built on top. However, the rapid growth in L2s raises the question of “commodification risk.” Nevertheless, Ethereum ecosystem continues to expand and remains her second choice. Solana is more consumer-oriented and has potential to become part of institutional expansion in the future. In asset allocation, she said, since flagship strategies cannot directly hold crypto ETFs, ARK mainly invests via stocks such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and stablecoin-related firms like Circle, with small holdings of ETH and Solana. Currently, crypto-related assets account for about 12–13% of her portfolio, a reasonable proportion. She added that the market is watching whether major traditional financial firms (like Morgan Stanley, BofA, Wells Fargo, UBS) will launch Bitcoin ETFs, which could significantly influence future trends.

▌Long-term Holders Own 14.35 Million BTC, About 68.3% of Total Supply

On-chain analyst Murphy compiled data showing 153 entities hold non-zero BTC balances, including 29 publicly listed companies holding 1.082 million BTC, with the rest holding 54,331 BTC. Besides corporate reserves, spot ETFs hold a total of 1.311 million BTC, with the top three being BlackRock (770,000 BTC), Fidelity (202,000 BTC), and Grayscale (167,000 BTC). Governments worldwide hold about 615,000 BTC, with the US government holding 325,000 BTC, the largest holder. Additionally, 3.409 million BTC have remained untouched for over 10 years on-chain, mostly belonging to “lost keys or unreachable addresses,” including Satoshi’s estimated 1 million BTC. Summing up, long-term holders control about 14.35 million BTC, approximately 68.3% of the total supply.

▌Analyst: Key Support Level for Bitcoin at $86,000; Breach Could Trigger Deeper Pullback

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 this Sunday, with the overall crypto market remaining weak. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that $86,000 is a crucial support level for Bitcoin. Losing this support could lead to a larger correction. Investors are cautious ahead of upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including employment indicators like unemployment rate, ADP data, and weekly jobless claims, along with November inflation and Yen rate hikes. Currently, the market remains range-bound with low trading volume and limited confidence.

▌Data: Market Cap of Tokenized Commodities Reaches About $3.8 Billion, a Record High

Token Terminal reports that the market cap of tokenized commodities has hit approximately $3.8 billion, setting a new all-time high.

▌Bitwise Advisor: Current Market Structure Not Favorable for Bitcoin Upside, OG Whales Continue Selling

Bitwise advisor Jeff Park wrote that the current market structure fundamentally does not favor significant Bitcoin price increases. The reasons are that, on one hand, Bitcoin OG holders are still selling, and on the other, demand from ETFs and DApps is slowing. Moreover, he emphasized that for Bitcoin to rally, implied volatility must rise persistently, especially on the upside. In November, he stated “Either volatility or death” and shared initial signals of an abnormal breakout. Now, volatility has begun to rebound, reinvigorating hope. Unfortunately, implied volatility has been suppressed again over the past two weeks, falling from a high of 63% in late November to 44%.

▌Analyst: If Bank of Japan Hikes as Expected, Bitcoin Could Correct to $70,000

Some macro analysts believe that if the Bank of Japan raises rates as scheduled on December 19, Bitcoin could retreat to around $70,000. Analyst AndrewBTC tracks historical data showing that every rate hike by BOJ since 2024 has been followed by over 20% declines in Bitcoin, e.g., about 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025. If BOJ hikes next week, similar downside risks may reemerge.

▌Tom Lee: BitMine Will Never Sell Its ETH Holdings

Ethereum treasury company BitMine’s chairman Tom Lee stated that the company is approaching holding about 4% of the total ETH supply and believes they will never sell these ETH. He said, “If we now stake these ETH, we will generate over $1 million net revenue daily.”

▌Moonbirds Plans to Launch BIRB Token on Solana in Q1 2026

Moonbirds parent company Orange Cap Games CEO Spencer announced at Solana Breakpoint that Moonbirds plans to launch its BIRB token on Solana in Q1 2026. Spencer also mentioned that the team aims to position Moonbirds as “Web3’s Pop Mart,” focusing on developing collectible assets, including on-chain and real-world (IRL) digital and physical collectibles.

Major Economic Developments

▌Trump: New Fed Chair Likely to Favor Rate Cuts

President Trump: Soon will pick a new Fed Chair, who is likely to favor lowering interest rates. Inflation has been fully contained; we do not want deflation. Deflation is worse than inflation in many respects.

▌Debate Over Fed Rate Cuts: Will US Bonds Perform Well Again? All Depends on This Week’s Non-Farm Data?

The US Treasury market’s debate over future rate cuts is heating up with the release of key economic data. Traders bet that the Fed will cut rates twice next year, which is one more than implied by Fed signals, laying the groundwork for a strong performance of US bonds, which are heading toward their best year since 2020. George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas, said, “The direction of rates depends on the labor market, so I’m only watching Tuesday’s non-farm payrolls.” However, Kevin Flanagan of WisdomTree noted, “This week’s employment report could be less impactful because the government shutdown complicates data collection. He’s focusing on next month’s report, which will be released before the Fed’s January 28 policy decision.” Swaps market indicators suggest the Fed will end its easing cycle around a 3.2% rate. If the Fed remains on hold amid persistent inflation, it indicates bonds will likely stay in range-bound territory.

▌Citigroup: Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Could Signal More Conflicting Data

The Financial Times reports that Tuesday’s US non-farm payrolls will include data for October and November, providing a more complete picture of the labor market and ending months of partial ambiguity. After a contentious Fed meeting this week, rates were cut to a three-year low, with dissent among officials over whether to prioritize fighting high inflation or supporting a soft labor market. Citigroup economists forecast that the upcoming employment report may send mixed signals: expecting about 45,000 jobs to be lost in October but an increase of 80,000 in November. They suggest this rebound may be more due to seasonal adjustments rather than genuine demand improvements. They also project the unemployment rate to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters poll indicates 4.4%. The Fed’s own quarterly forecasts show a median unemployment rate of about 4.5% by year-end.

▌Glassnode Co-Founder: 25 Basis Point Rate Hike by BoJ Fully Priced In

Glassnode co-founder Negentropic posted saying that the rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is one of the most crowded trades in today’s markets. Many accounts on X are speculating similar information. The 25 basis point increase is already reflected in current asset prices. The only possible negative market reaction would be if BOJ issued hawkish forward guidance. Given Japan’s cautious balancing act among current account deficits, inflation, and Yen appreciation, BOJ has no plans for reckless moves. Future policy will depend on economic data and will resemble the Fed’s manner, proceeding cautiously on each rate decision.

▌Fed Likely to Hold Rates Unchanged in January with 75.6% Probability

According to CME “Fed Watch”: the probability that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 24.4%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 75.6%. The chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March 2024 is 41.9%, with a 49.8% chance of no change, and an 8.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.