Gate on-chain observation ( October 15 ): The US government's holdings exceed 320,000 BTC, ranking first globally; "Maji Brother" lost 54 million USD.

In the past 24 hours, there have been multiple large transfers and position changes on-chain in the crypto market, with institutions and whale funds continuously repositioning in mainstream tokens. The U.S. government has become the largest Bitcoin holding entity globally, attracting widespread attention from the market; ETH has become the dominant on-chain asset, with Bitmine-related addresses and long position whales significantly increasing their holdings; BTC has been activated by both long and short positions after Powell's speech, with on-chain leverage risks rapidly accumulating; at the same time, popular tokens such as XPL, ASTER, ENA, and FF have seen consecutive chip transfers and price correction signals. Overall, the high-leverage games of mainstream tokens and the re-accumulation by institutions are occurring simultaneously, and the short-term fluctuation range may further expand.

BTC Market Dynamics

Whales and Institutional Long/Short Battle Intensifies · Address '0xddc' established 150 BTC short positions (approximately 16.8 million USD) today at 11.82 million USD, quickly entering after Powell's speech. This address is known for its 'grid-like hierarchical layout', with a win rate of 77.8% this month, mainly employing medium to short wave strategies. · Meanwhile, the BTC long positions held by WLFI advisor ogle (0x70F) have incurred significant floating losses, with an opening average price of 11.54 million USD, currently showing a floating loss of over 450,000 USD, and a liquidation price of 10.97 million USD, only 2.3% away from liquidation. · The U.S. government has confirmed the confiscation of 127,000 BTC (approximately 14.1 billion USD) from Cambodia's Prince Group Chen Zhi, bringing its total holdings to 324,000 BTC (worth 36.2 billion USD), firmly maintaining its position as the largest Bitcoin holding entity in the world.

· The “insider whale” has completely closed its $500 million Bitcoin short position on Hyperliquid, accumulating a profit of approximately $5 million since the market's series of crashes on October 10.

· Solv Protocol deposits 500 BTC into CEX for liquidity or collateral expansion.

Analysis: Institutional and whale funds in the BTC market are engaged in directional games, with one side leveraging to short positions and the other still insisting on long positions. The large holdings information from the U.S. government enhances expectations of supply pressure in the market, which may suppress rebound momentum in the short term; however, the logic of institutional allocation remains unchanged in the medium to long term, and the scarcity of spot remains the main line.

ETH Market Dynamics

1. Long Position Whales Active Again · A whale returned heavily after losing $2.04 million during the flash crash on October 11, opening a long position of 18,900 ETH at an average price of $3,717, with a total position value of $78 million, currently showing a floating profit of $7.5 million. · Additionally, a newly created wallet withdrew $10 million USDC from CEX, of which $9 million was deposited into Hyperliquid to open a 3x leveraged long position on ETH, and the remaining $3 million was used to buy XPL in batches on the spot market using a TWAP strategy. · An ancient whale that accumulated ETH on CEX six years ago liquidated 2,538 ETH today (about $10.47 million), realizing a profit of 20 times.

2、Cumberland and Institutional Liquidity · Cumberland has withdrawn a total of 17,200 ETH (approximately $71.37 million) in the past week, indicating that it is still providing position adjustment or over-the-counter settlement services for institutional clients. · According to on-chain monitoring, a newly created wallet received 26,199 ETH (approximately $10.8 million) from FalconX, suspected to belong to a Bitmine affiliated account.

3. “Maji Brother” Huang Licheng has lost 54.06 million dollars in the past 30 days, with an overall account loss of 12.75 million dollars, leaving an account balance of only 348,000 dollars. Currently holding long positions in ETH worth 9.06 million dollars, with a liquidation price of 4047.1 dollars.

Analysis: The inflow intensity of ETH has significantly increased, with institutions continuously withdrawing coins and whales rebuilding long positions, forming multiple supports. The outflow of spot and the overlap of leveraged positions may pose a short-term risk of pullback, but the overall structure remains bullish, making ETH still the preferred asset for funds.

SOL Market Dynamics

FTX/Alameda redeemed 192,900 SOL from staking ( for 39.41 million USD) and distributed it to 28 addresses, after which most of these addresses that received SOL will transfer the SOL to CEX.

Since November 2023, the FTX/Alameda staking address has cumulatively redeemed and transferred out 9.173 million SOL ( totaling 1.85 billion USD ), with an average transfer price of 135 USD. Currently, the FTX/Alameda staking address still holds 4.41 million SOL ( valued at 890 million USD ) in staking.

Analysis: This may indicate further selling pressure risks, showing that FTX/Alameda's strategy of continuously reducing holdings at market highs. Currently, about 4.41 million SOL (approximately $890 million) are in a staked state. If they continue to unlock or transfer in the future, it may cause a temporary liquidity shock to the Solana market and raise investors' concerns about short-term price fluctuations.

ASTER Market Dynamics

· Galaxy Digital deposited another 200 ASTER (approximately 3 million USD) to CEX, with a total recharge of 40.8 million (68.28 million USD) over the past week, still holding 31.9 million (47.21 million USD).

· Whale Address continues to transfer 7.937 million ASTER (approximately 11.518 million USD) to CEX, with a remaining on-chain supply of 31.89 million (47.84 million USD).

· ASTER has fallen from its previous high of 2 dollars to 1.49 dollars, indicating a clear phase of accumulation.

Analysis: The outflow of funds from ASTER is synchronized with the pace of institutional transfers, indicating persistent selling pressure in the short term; Galaxy Digital and other leading wallets may be conducting phased hedging operations. ASTER's funds are concentrated on the exchange side, and the short-term fluctuation range is expanding.

Other Tokens and Institutional Fund Flows

1、ENA, XPL, FF under follow · The TOP36 whales that increased their positions in HYPE yesterday have turned to ENA today, withdrawing 3 million ENA (1.32 million USD) from CEX for their first position building. · At the same time, institutional accounts continue to buy XPL spot through TWAP strategy, indicating that medium and short-term funds are flowing into new ecological targets.

· Four whales have accumulated an additional 48 million FF (approximately 6.47 million USD) and have staked after the market crash.

2、Transfer of Gold and Stablecoin Assets · A veteran Whale who profited 5.16 million USD by shorting BTC during the “LUNA/UST crash” purchased 2879 XAUt for 12.01 million USD at an average price of 4168 USD, indicating a rise in risk aversion. · Institutions such as Cumberland, FTX/Alameda continue to carry out large asset transfers, with FTX having redeemed 192,900 SOL (approximately 39.41 million USD) and continuing to distribute to exchanges.

Analysis: The funding direction of non-mainstream tokens shows that funds are shifting towards defensive positions and structural layouts: assets like XAUt are being accumulated, while ENA, XPL, and FF are still being followed, indicating that institutions are making precautionary adjustments for market fluctuations.

Market Overview and Trend Analysis

In the past 24 hours, on-chain data shows that funds have flowed back into the mainstream asset sector, especially ETH and BTC. The U.S. government's Bitcoin seizure event has reignited discussions about the long-term balance of supply in the market, while the long and short positions of institutions and whales have intensified short-term fluctuations. ETH leverage positions have significantly increased, indicating that market expectations for a rebound have strengthened. ASTER and ENA have entered a phase of capital repricing, with active liquidity on the exchange side.

The overall assessment is as follows:

Institutional flow is biased towards long positions, funds are flowing back to mainstream sectors: The accumulation of buy orders for ETH and XPL indicates a recovery in risk appetite.

BTC Supply Pressure and Divergence between Long and Short Positions: The massive holdings by the U.S. government may create potential selling pressure, but it is unlikely to directly impact the market in the short term.

Derivative leverage risk rises: Long positions are concentrated in ETH and some BTC positions. If prices decline, the risk of liquidation will be magnified.

Hedging and Rebalancing Trend Strengthens: The passive buying of XAUt and the concentrated transfer of stablecoins indicate that institutions are engaging in position defense and structural reorganization.

The market will be in a high fluctuation range in the short term, but the overall trend leans towards structural recovery, with ETH and BTC still being the main centers of capital accumulation.

Conclusion

The return of mainstream funds and the reallocation by institutions indicate that the market has entered a stage of fluctuating recovery. With the transparency of U.S. regulatory events and institutional holdings information, there may still be short-term fluctuations, but the long-term logic remains upward, and the accumulation trend of ETH and mainstream assets continues to strengthen.