The logical analysis of the initiation, operation, and conclusion of this round of the BTC bull run: Has the four-year cycle rule been broken?

This article will analyze the development of each phase of the BTC bull market, explore whether the four-year cyclical law is still in effect, and how the new market structure affects the future direction of Bitcoin. This article is derived from an article written by EMC Labs and compiled, compiled, and contributed by PANews. (Synopsis: Bitcoin Q4 will peak? 8 indicators take you to see the bull market turning signal) (background supplement: Bitcoin hit a new high and encountered resistance again, this round of bull market has approached the “big top”? BTC reached a 4-year low of $15,460.00/coin on November 21, 2022, according to Coinbase quotes. We consider this day as the end of the previous cycle and the start of the current cycle. Since that day until September 30 this year, BTC has been in turmoil for 1,044 days, which is close to the peak of the previous two cycles (about 1,060 days after the low). Then BTC will reach the apex of the cycle in October 2025. Comparison of 5 cycles BTC price trend This “cyclical law” curse of BTC, derived from the speculative boom brought about by consensus diffusion and production reduction, is still the most important cyclical indicator for traditional large holders of BTC. This group has played a decisive role in shaping the top of BTC in the past. It is this group's crazy take profit sell-off, squeezing out liquidity, and finally allowing the market to complete the casting of the apex of the cycle. At present, this group is stepping up the sell-off, and it looks like the “apex” is coming. However, other top indicators such as a sharp price increase and a sudden increase in new addresses did not appear. It is puzzling whether the “cyclical law” of the current cycle will continue to suppress the market and shape the top of the cycle, or will it fail here? Will the BTC bull market, which started in November 2022, end in October? In this report, EMC Labs uses the self-developed “BTC cycle multi-factor research and judgment model” to comprehensively analyze the BTC price trend since the current cycle, clarify which market forces and underlying logic really promote the cycle, and finally give our analysis and judgment on whether the BTC price will peak in October. The first stage (2022.11~2023.09): long-hand overweight Looking back at history, the bankruptcy of FTX, one of the major buyers in the previous cycle, and its lender Voyager Digital and other institutions marked the completion of the liquidation of the cycle. After the bankruptcy of FTX, the price of BTC fell from the bottom range of $20,000 to $15,476 (Coinbase data, the same below), and the lowest point occurred on November 21, 2024. The bankruptcy of institutions such as FTX has exacerbated the market bottoming, but the fundamental force determining the end of the cycle is the stop-profit sell-off of the long-hand group (long-term investors). Short-hand and long-hand selling when the market is frenzied, short-hand selling and long-hand overweight when the market cools down. Statistics on the change in positions of the group of long hands in the previous cycle As in previous cycles, long hands began to collect chips during the bear market phase of the previous cycle. Entering the bottom stage, the scale of short-hand loss selling began to decrease, and the buying power of long-hand began to transform into a driving force to push the price upward, pushing the BTC and crypto markets to bid farewell to the bottom and start a new cycle. At the same time, the Fed's rate hike cycle in the post-pandemic era began to come to an end and officially ended on July 26, 2023. The Nasdaq Composite bottomed out on October 13, 2022 for forward trading reasons and exited the bottom range in January 2023. The BTC price is basically synchronized with this, about 9~10 months before the official stop of raising interest rates. Towards the end of the interest rate hike cycle, monetary tightening led to the bankruptcy of regional banks in the United States (Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank), and the US government was forced to urgently release liquidity. The US M2/DXY index began to bottom out, providing an external environment for the US stock market and BTC to bottom out. US M2/DXY We define “2022.11~2023.09” as the first stage of this cycle. Coupled with the improvement of macro liquidity, the tension generated by the internal holding structure of the crypto market has become the fundamental driving force for the rise in BTC prices at this stage. The Fed rate hike officially ended in July 2023, and the long-hand increase continued until the end of September 2023. DATs and BTC Spot ETFs, which will be popular in the future, have not yet become the dominant force at this time, and the group of retail investors chasing prices has not yet woken up. Stablecoin issuance is shrinking at this stage, and money is still flowing out of the crypto market. The cyclical overweight of the long-hand group is the main force in the market. In the first phase, BTC rebounded from a high of $15476.00 to $31862.21, a maximum increase of 105.88%. The second stage (2023.10~2024.03): BTC Spot ETF US inflation continued to fall, and the brief rebound in CPI in July~September 2023 was considered a false alarm, and July was finally confirmed as the end month of the Fed's current interest rate hike cycle. As market expectations change, risk assets begin to be favored by funds, and the change in risk appetite prepares for the second phase of BTC's launch. What really drove the BTC launch for the second phase of the cycle was the approval expectation for the BTC Spot ETF and the fifth BTC halving in April 2024. Wall Street traditional asset management giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity submitted BTC Spot ETF applications to the SEC in June 2023, and forward-looking speculative trading funds were secretly assembled. Bounded by the SEC's approval of the BTC Spot ETF on January 10, 2024, the second phase of the market is divided into the first and second halves, the first half (2023.10~2024.01.10) is dominated by speculative funds betting on ETF approvals, and the second half (2024.01.10~2024.03.14) is dominated by the incremental funds brought by the ETF channel (more than $12 billion). BTC Spot ETF and Stablecoin Channel Monthly Statistics on Liquidity In addition, the stablecoin channel also completely got rid of the outflow trend in October and resumed inflows, with a total of more than $26 billion in new issuance by the end of March, which was one of the main driving forces in the first half. Since the launch of the market at this stage in October 2024, the long-hand group has initiated the reduction of holdings, and the scale of the reduction has reached as many as 900,000 by the end of the market. This stage of the market is dominated by speculation/investment funds in the BTC Spot ETF channel, speculation/investment funds on the floor (manifested by a large number of additional issuance of stablecoins) and long-hand reductions. The buying power is greater than the selling power, and the price of BTC has risen sharply, and the market is very fierce. In the second stage, BTC rose from a low of $26,955.25 to a maximum of $73,835.57, with a maximum increase of 173.92%. The third stage (2024.04~2024.09): halving and rebalancing In the second phase of analysis, we pointed out that investment/speculative funds based on the traditional narrative of BTC production reduction are also important factors in determining the market. This is clearly reflected in the third stage of the market. On April 19, 2024, BTC completed its 4th minus…