Dữ liệu việc làm phân hóa và nhiệt độ địa chính trị của giá dầu, điểm xoay chiều thanh khoản của thị trường tiền điện tử nằm ở đâu?

【Block Rhythm】Lately there’s been an interesting contrast in the employment data released by the US. December’s ADP employment rebounded to 410,000, which sounds pretty good, suggesting companies are still hiring; but then the JOLTS job openings data let us down—the actual figure of 7.146 million continues to decline, meaning while companies are still hiring, actual demand is already cooling. This situation where current conditions hold up but prospects are less optimistic makes the Fed’s decision-making much more complicated.

Things on the geopolitical front aren’t peaceful either. The US oil embargo on Venezuela has clearly escalated—directly seizing two tankers carrying Venezuelan crude on the high seas, with one even escorted by the Russian Navy. This isn’t a small move, but a real and forceful near-blockade of Venezuela’s “shadow fleet,” while also testing where the bottom line lies between the US and Russia on sanctions and freedom of navigation.

For financial markets, this becomes a “tug of war” situation. Strong ADP data supports the dollar and interest rate expectations in the short term, but the decline in JOLTS coupled with rising energy geopolitical risks mean the overall macroeconomic environment’s uncertainty hasn’t dissipated. Crude oil supply risks resurface, and inflation expectations and risk-aversion sentiment could start to interact and ferment.

For the crypto market, the key actually isn’t whether one data point looks good or bad, but whether liquidity expectations will see a new turning point. Employment data divergence and energy geopolitical escalation—these two forces acting simultaneously—may keep short-term pricing where it is, but medium-term you need to be careful of the risk of demand cooling and supply shocks occurring in sync.