Nhà phân tích của Bitunix: Milan tuyên bố rằng vào năm 2026 có thể sẽ giảm lãi suất mạnh hơn 100 điểm cơ bản, dữ liệu việc làm trở thành điểm phân chia chính sách

Coin World News: On January 7, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran recently pointed out that the current interest rate policy is “clearly restrictive” and causing substantial drag on the economy, and explicitly stated that 2026 has sufficient reasons to support rate cuts “significantly exceeding 100 basis points.” This statement is notably dovish, contrasting sharply with some officials’ view that policy has approached neutrality, and highlights that divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding economic prospects and policy stance continues to widen. From a macroeconomic perspective, whether monetary policy is overly restrictive ultimately depends on actual labor market performance. This week, the US will intensively release ADP, JOLTS, initial jobless claims, and non-farm employment reports, with multiple “employment checkup” data serving as key indicators to judge whether the economy has the capacity to withstand high interest rates. If employment remains resilient, the legitimacy of the Fed’s near-term pause in rate cuts will increase; conversely, if data weakens again, the dovish voices represented by Miran may amplify quickly. On the crypto market level, this divergence itself constitutes an important forward-looking signal. Uncertainty in the rate path means liquidity expectations will remain highly sensitive to data changes, potentially amplifying short-term volatility; however, if subsequent employment and inflation data jointly point to expanded policy adjustment space, markets will reassess the medium-to-long-term liquidity environment, providing structural support for assets with “monetary attributes” like Bitcoin. Bitunix Analyst: The current issue is not about a single official’s remarks, but rather policy divergence intersecting with critical data. The direction of employment data will determine whether markets move toward “interest rate pause” or “early trading of deeper easing,” and the crypto market’s core observation focus remains on whether there is a material shift in liquidity expectations.