The price movement of $RIVER has once again validated the power of the TWAP strategy—short positions have undergone significant stop-loss liquidations. Currently, the funding rate remains in an extremely negative zone, reflecting an intriguing game being played by market participants.

From the perspective of spot and perpetual futures spread, the current ~3% basis, while having narrowed somewhat, remains in a delicate situation. Longs can continue to leverage the negative funding rate for reverse arbitrage, but the window for such opportunities is limited. Once the TWAP trading mechanism at a major exchange halts operations, the situation will rapidly reverse, and longs will face similar difficulties. The thin order book implies insufficient liquidity buffers in the market, amplifying price volatility risk. The entire market is like standing at a critical juncture—seemingly calm on the surface, yet with undercurrents flowing beneath.