After the correction of the past days, the quotation of Bitcoin rose again yesterday
Today, November 28, 2024, in theory, the bull run could restart and aim for $100,000.
The correction of the Bitcoin quotation
After reaching the all-time high at 99,600$, on November 22, the Bitcoin price experienced a correction
In reality, until Monday, November 25, it managed to stay above $98,000, despite a brief dip below $96,000 on Sunday, but on Monday the correction resumed
The minimum peak of this recent correction was reached on Tuesday the 26th at a non-random level
In fact, although this peak was reached below $91,000, but only for a brief moment, the $91,400 level was never really breached
Excluding the rapid excursions below this threshold, which lasted too little to be considered relevant in the medium term, the $91,400 held, and this already allowed not only the end of the correction but also a small bull bounce yesterday
The rebound of the BTC price
Already on Tuesday itself, after failing to break through the 91,400$ mark, the Bitcoin quotation had risen above 92,000$
It is important to keep in mind that in these cases the sudden drops are mainly due to forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, resulting in the forced sale of many BTC. However, when the forced liquidations stop, the drop in the very short term also stops.
Therefore, it should not be surprising that already on Tuesday itself, after the correction had effectively stopped at $91,400, there was a first rebound above $92,000, precisely due to the effect just described
Yesterday, however, it seems that the markets have started to price in a possible restart of the bullrun.
In fact, not only did the price of Bitcoin quickly rise above $93,000, but during the day it even managed to climb above $97,000.
The role of the USA Stock Exchanges
The fact is that today, Thursday, November 28, 2024, in the USA it is Thanksgiving Day, and the stock markets are closed for the holiday.
However, for a few days it was anticipated that on November 27 the correction could end, and that on November 28 the bullrun could resume
Only today those who operate, for example, with US ETFs cannot make transactions due to the holiday closure of the US stock exchanges, and so they very likely anticipated their movements to yesterday
After the opening of the USA stock exchanges yesterday, the BTC price went from $93,000 to $97,000 in a matter of hours, and with the S&P500 index declining
However, following the closure of the US stock exchanges, the price of Bitcoin fell back below $96,000
Today the US stock exchanges may not have a role in the trend of bitcoin’s price, but the American markets could still have it through the crypto exchanges, open 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
The forecasts on the quotation of Bitcoin (BTC)
If at this point another correction does not begin, the attention shifts back to the fateful $100,000.
In theory, there is the possibility that this figure could be reached in the coming days, but it would require the bull run to start again today. With the U.S. stock markets closed, it might be difficult to return above $99,000 today.
It should not be forgotten, however, that tomorrow the US stock markets will be open, even if only for half a day. Saturday and Sunday, on the other hand, will obviously be closed for the weekend
Therefore, for surpassing $100,000, it might be necessary to wait until December, even though it is not at all guaranteed that this will happen
However, there are several analysts who argue that the current medium-term trend of Bitcoin’s price also tends towards higher figures, perhaps around $110,000
It becomes more difficult to imagine what might happen next, because certainly above $100,000 profit-taking will increase, making a new correction increasingly possible
The end-of-year dynamic
One must not forget, however, that often at the end of the year a curious and interesting bullish dynamic occurs, in the short term
The fact is that selling in December and realizing capital gains means paying taxes on those capital gains already the following year
Instead, postponing the sale by a few days to carry it out in January literally shifts the tax payment forward by a year
When one is confident enough to sell at a profit, this is a reasoning that many make, if they can afford it. This implies, in bullish years, a reduction in selling pressure in December, and particularly in the second half of the month, which can play a role in a further increase in prices. Obviously, it also implies that if the growth at the beginning of January stops, the selling pressure increases, causing prices to fall
