A research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) notes that the Iran–U.S. conflict has pushed up oil prices, increasing inflation risks, affecting expectations for Fed rate cuts, and driving selling of gold ETFs. Geopolitical developments put oil prices at a crossroads, while the gold market is focused on how an economic downturn could affect it; in the future, it may reassess expectations for rate hikes. Demand for gold investment and prices may have room to rise.

According to reports, the Hong Kong China International Capital (CICC) team is in talks with public chains and exchanges about cooperation, focusing on market dynamics following the release of Document No. 42. Regulatory officials pointed out that RWA based on Hong Kong assets are not regulated by this document, while outbound RWA of domestic assets require strict regulation, emphasizing that rapid development is not encouraged.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research reports suggest that the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cut could exceed market expectations, and dollar easing trades may return in the short term. The report points out that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to "shrink its balance sheet" in the near term, but the thresholds for "expanding the balance sheet" and quantitative easing are rising, potentially achieved through increased rate cuts and short-term Treasury issuance to realize monetary-fiscal coordination. The steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve will benefit American bank stocks.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinshi, a research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) states that choosing who will be the Federal Reserve Chair is unlikely to significantly alter the normalization and expansion of the balance sheet. Although the Fed began expanding its balance sheet in December last year, with marginal improvements in liquidity, narrow liquidity remains well below the lower bound of a "ample level." The US dollar liquidity indicator still shows a relatively tight state since the pandemic. Under debt pressures and financial market stability concerns, a trend of liquidity expansion is highly probable, suggesting a continued global asset bull market.

ChainCatcher news reports that according to Jinshi, a China Securities Journal report states that in the short term, Wosh's nomination has limited impact on the easing path but may lead to a revision of dollar liquidity expectations, potentially easing the pressure on the dollar's depreciation temporarily. In the medium term, Wosh's stance faces constraints from the Federal Reserve internal members, the capital markets, and fiscal authorities, and whether it can ultimately succeed remains uncertain. Investors should be prepared and make contingency plans.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research reports indicate that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the January meeting, in line with market expectations. Board member Waller cast a dissenting vote, possibly related to his desire to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Powell stated that monetary policy is "in a suitable position," indicating that the threshold for a rate cut in the short term has increased. CICC forecasts that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates twice in 2026, but the first rate cut might be delayed until the second quarter.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, CICC predicts that U.S. inflation will show compensatory increases in the CPI data for December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026. If recent U.S. inflation remains strong, it could lead to the Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of rate cuts, with global liquidity marginally tightening. The uncertainty in major asset classes both domestically and internationally may increase. CICC recommends increasing allocations in commodities to hedge risks, and during asset corrections, consider adding to stocks, gold, and U.S. Treasuries.

A research report by CICC points out that if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chair, it is expected to benefit US stocks, while US Treasury yields and the US dollar may experience a dip followed by a rebound. The key period is the first quarter of 2026, when Hassett's dovish statements may lead to a short-term decline in US Treasuries and the dollar, but overall economic recovery will support their rebound.

According to ChainCatcher news, Jin10 reports that the China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research report points out that considering the possibility of a shift in the Fed's interest rate cut pace in 2026, it is expected that the variables of US dollar liquidity and market environment will increase after the December FOMC meeting. Weaker US growth employment data and speculation about the next Fed chair candidate may raise expectations for interest rate cuts, while current officials' concerns about inflation may suppress those expectations. Therefore, it is believed that the certainty of easing trades is higher in early December, which will be more favorable for the performance of various assets.

According to a report by Jinse Finance, a research report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that, unlike the past three years, the current rise in precious metals is primarily driven by the cyclical demand for gold, while the price increase of silver has surpassed that of gold. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm believes that cyclical demand and structural trends are expected to continue driving the upward trend in gold and silver prices. In the benchmark scenario, the firm estimates that the COMEX gold price will rise to $4,500 per ounce by 2026, and the silver price will rise to $55 per ounce, indicating further upward potential compared to the current trend. The firm believes that the cyclical investment demand for precious metals has not yet reached its peak, as the U.S. monetary policy may shift to easing in the short term, and the long-term risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored may persist. On the other hand, under the new macro order, the unique allocation value of physical gold and the strategic resource attributes of silver will become increasingly prominent, providing structural support for global central banks to buy gold, private physical investments, and regional stockpiling.