BlockBeats News, December 5 — The US will release September PCE inflation data tonight. As the Fed’s most closely watched price indicator, this result will directly impact the December interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut remains at 87%. The market expects the core PCE annual growth rate to be around 2.8%, slightly above the target but continuing a cooling trend. If the data comes in below expectations, it will strengthen the market narrative of a “soft landing” and the formation of an easing cycle. On the macro level, yesterday’s weaker ADP employment data has made the market even more sensitive to this inflation result. Meeting or coming in below expectations will put pressure on the dollar and support risk assets; if above expectations, sticky inflation may push up US Treasury yields, weaken rate-cut expectations, and trigger short-term avoidance of high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with liquidity waiting for the event before repositioning. The crypto market continues its choppy trend, BTC

ING’s latest analysis points out that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is currently holding above 4% and has further room to rise. This trend is not favorable for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, as rising yields often indicate tighter financial conditions and declining risk appetite. Currently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury stands at 4.09%. Despite several economic indicators, including the ADP employment report, showing weakness—with US employment numbers shrinking for the third time in five months in November—yields have demonstrated notable resilience. In a client report on Thursday, ING stated that US Treasury yields have recently fluctuated mainly in the 4% to 4.1% range. “Although a short-term drop below this range is possible, once yields break above the upper end, the likelihood of continued increases is greater.”

In November, the US labor market deteriorated, with the ADP report showing private companies cut 32,000 jobs, with small businesses being the most affected. Employment data fell far short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.

The ADP report shows that U.S. employment growth stalled in the second half of 2025, with private sector employment decreasing by 32,000 in November. Hiring was particularly weak in industries such as manufacturing and construction, with poor overall performance.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10, US November ADP employment change was -32,000, expected 10,000, previous value 42,000.

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower during the Asian afternoon trading session as investors remained cautious ahead of the ADP employment and ISM services data. Analysts pointed out that the ISM survey will be the main focus for the market. Both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields declined.

Odaily News Gold prices fell on Tuesday from a more than six-month high, with Spot gold losing the $4200 per ounce mark during the day. This was partly due to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking that weighed on prices, while investors awaited U.S. economic data to assess the Fed's policy path. The Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained near a two-week high, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Water noted: "Gold has performed weakly today, but the fundamentals remain unchanged— including the expected Fed rate cuts, which should support gold prices from a yield perspective." Market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that the core PCE price index, a favored inflation indicator by the Fed, will remain moderate when released on Friday. Additionally, key U.S. data this week includes the November ADP employment report on Wednesday. (Jin10)

This week's important economic events include speeches by Fed Chairman Powell, ADP employment data, unemployment claims, and the release of several key indicators such as the core PCE price index.

Odaily News The American employment data processing company ADP announced on Tuesday that as the pace of layoffs accelerated over the past four weeks, the U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakness. The latest data shows that over the past four weeks, private enterprises have averaged a reduction of 13,500 jobs per week. This is an acceleration compared to the previous week's data, which indicated a reduction of 2,500 jobs per week. Due to the ongoing impact of the prior government shutdown on data releases, alternative data sources like ADP have been filling in the gaps in the economic picture. (Jin10)

BlockBeats news, on November 18, according to data released by ADP Research on Tuesday, American companies averaged about 2,500 layoffs per week for the four weeks ending November 1. This indicates that the labor market lost some momentum in late October. The monthly employment report released on November 5 showed that private sector employment increased by 42,000, after declining for two consecutive months. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment report on Thursday, with expectations for an increase of 55,000 jobs compared to the previous month. Before the weekly data from ADP was released, several large companies had announced layoffs for the month, including Amazon and Target. According to a report from Challenger companies, the planned number of layoffs in October this year is the highest in over twenty years. (Jin10)

During the European trading session, U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as the market remained cautious, focusing on the upcoming economic data. Analysts pointed out that the recent weak ADP report indicates an increase in layoffs in the private sector, reflecting concerns over a soft labor market and weak demand.

Jin10 Data, November 11th: Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities stated that gold futures rose as the expected end of the U.S. government shutdown will allow government data to resume normal release schedules. This could make a further interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December possible. "Once the government reopens, the previously unpublished macroeconomic data flow may indicate that inflation remains stubborn and that the labor market conditions are weaker than what the ADP report shows," he added. "These two factors could prompt the Fed to cut rates in December, despite their repeated cautious rhetoric."

Odaily News After the release of the ADP data, the US dollar index rose, up 0.06% to 100.22, while US Treasury yields slightly fell. (Jin10)

PANews reported on October 23 that Paxos is launching a feature that allows employees to receive part of their salary in stablecoin USDG due to an integration partnership with Toku. This integration will use the same payroll distribution platform—ADP and Workday—but will allow employees to directly receive USDG into their personal Wallet. For employees who choose to receive their salary in USDG, the Settlement will be completed instantly, unlike traditional salary checks. There is no need to wait to receive the stablecoin. Paxos stated in a press release: "By adopting USDG salary distribution for our team, Paxos provides users with the most direct way to encounter and experience USDG in their daily lives. As more and more companies connect to Toku's salary distribution channels, thousands of employees worldwide will be able to receive USDG directly at the source of their income."

Odaily News The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by more than 3 basis points to 4.117% after the release of the ADP data. (Jin10)

Odaily News After the release of the ADP report, traders raised their bets on two more rate cuts by the Fed this year. (Jin10)

According to ChainCatcher news, as reported by Jin10, the probability of a rate cut in July for the U.S. federal funds futures increased from about 20% before the ADP data was released to 27.4%.

BlockBeats news, on April 30, the U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline after the ADP data was released; the latest yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by 2.5 basis points to 4.149%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield finally fell by 1.4 basis points to 3.644%. (Jin10)

Jin10 reported on April 2 that Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, stated that the March ADP data from the U.S. is a decent rebound considering the poor data from February. There is no evidence to suggest that layoffs have been caused by policy uncertainty (at least outside of the government), and with this rebound, there is also not much evidence pointing to a lack of hiring. Business sentiment is low, so this situation may change, but the mismatch between hard data and soft data continues.

Golden data March 5th news, according to CME's 'Fed Watch': The probability of the Fed maintaining the Intrerest Rate in March is 93%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7%. By May, the probability of maintaining the current Intrerest Rate is 56.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 41.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 2.8%.

PANews

On January 8th, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed maintaining the Interest Rate unchanged in January is 95.2%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.8%. The probability of maintaining the current Interest Rate unchanged by March is 62.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1.6%.

Jinshi data December 4th news, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Fed will maintain the current Intrerest Rate by December is 26%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 74%. The probability of maintaining the current Intrerest Rate by January next year is 19.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 62.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 17.4%.

ADP report: Compared with the same period last year, the wages of employees on the job have fallen to 4.6%, continuing the slowing trend of the past two years. For job changers, wage growth has slowed to 6.2%.

On October 3, according to the Jinshi data, the New Zealand dollar weakened against the US dollar in the Asian market. US President Biden said on Wednesday that the G7 is coordinating a response to the Iran's attack on Israel, including imposing new sanctions on Tehran. Analysts at a Malaysian bank said in a forex research and strategy report that investors continue to seek refuge in the US dollar and may be affected by the sanctions. The analyst said that better-than-expected US ADP data also boosted the dollar.

On September 5th, Jin Shi data reported that, according to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 57.0%, and the probability of lowering interest rates by 50 basis points is 43.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by November is 31.6%, the probability of cutting interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points is 49.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by a cumulative 100 basis points is 19.2%.

On July 31, Jin10 data reported that the number of new employees added by U.S. companies reached the lowest level since the beginning of the year, in line with signs of softening labor demand. ADP data shows that whether changing jobs or staying in one, the speed of wage rise has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. ADP data is consistent with signs of a gradual slowdown in recruitment. In recent months, the unemployment rate has been rising, as has the number of people applying for unemployment benefits.

Odaily Planet Daily News According to the release of ADP data in the United States, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 7 points in the short term and is now reported at 104.06. (Jinshi)

Jinshi data July 31 news, ADP report: In July, the year-on-year wage growth of stayers slowed to 4.8%, the slowest rise speed in three years. The year-on-year increase in the wages of job changers decreased significantly, from 7.7% to 7.2%.

Jinshi data, July 31 news, according to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed maintaining the Intrerest Rate unchanged this week is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the Intrerest Rate unchanged until September is 0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 12.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 75 basis point rate cut is 0.2%.

Jinshi data news on July 3rd, so far, all the data released today should not have a significant impact on the market pricing. Labor data is slightly weaker than expected, and the initial claims for unemployment benefits exceeded expectations by 3000 people, but the decline in this number is not so great. At present, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in the service industry is more likely to change the situation.