Raoul Pal said the ETH/BTC exchange rate trend shows that ETH will outperform BTC as the business cycle and liquidity rebound. He emphasized that ETH, as a smart contract platform, will have a larger market size, while BTC mainly serves as a store of value. He predicted that Bitcoin will reach the peak of the bull market in the second quarter of 2026, and believes the current period is an extended five-year supercycle.

Raoul Pal declares Bitcoin peak will arrive in Q2 2026. He then explains how the bull cycle extension is still in play. Several factors point to BTC and altcoin prices surging after a dip. The crypto market has been in a fierce tug of war debate over bearish vs bullish expectations

Raoul Pal points out 12 reasons for the expansion of global liquidity during market pessimism, believing that the crypto market is about to reverse. He mentions factors such as the rebound in US fiscal liquidity and policy bullishness, and emphasizes that the market bottom could be confirmed within two weeks. The only risk is rising oil prices, with an expectation that they will move upward in the future.

Raoul Pal says this cycle mirrors 2017 and could peak by June 2026. This time could see the total crypto market cap to go from $3 trillion to $100 trillion.  This could very well be a highly promising 5-year bull cycle pump. The crypto market continues to see its greatest assets

Raoul Pal shares his 38 years of trading experience in the crypto market, believing that the current plunge is similar to the bullish correction in 2021. He emphasizes that "holding firmly and bravely bottom-fishing" is the best strategy. He recommends adding to positions gradually during market crashes, highlighting the importance of emotional management and independent thinking, and believes that the power of compound interest over time will ultimately prevail.

_Bitcoin and SaaS declines are driven by US liquidity constraints, not broken markets._ _Resolution of the US government shutdown could restore liquidity and ease market pressure._ _Full-cycle

The crypto market experienced a sharp decline over the weekend, with a market cap loss of $250 billion. Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal believes this phenomenon is due to a liquidity crunch in the US dollar rather than a fundamental issue with cryptocurrencies, and predicts that the liquidity drain is about to end, remaining optimistic about the market in 2026.

Raoul Pal argues that fears of quantum computing threatening Bitcoin are overstated, as any significant attack would lead to price crashes, making theft unprofitable. He emphasizes that Bitcoin can adapt with future upgrades, ensuring long-term security while current threats remain distant.

Raoul Pal predicts that market volatility and liquidity issues in 2025 are preparing for a significant crypto surge in 2026, driven by a need for increased liquidity and government fiscal expansion. He suggests Bitcoin and smart contract platforms will thrive, and anticipates a strong relationship between AI and blockchain.

Former Goldman Sachs executive, current member of the Sui Foundation, and macro investor Raoul Pal emphasized multiple times in a recent interview that his core judgment about the future market does not focus on short-term price performance, but rather on "how liquidity is reopened at an institutional level." In his analytical framework, the significance of 2026 does not come from the highs and lows of market sentiment, but rather from the formation of a new cycle of funds as monetary policy, the banking system, government finance, and encryption systems gradually synchronize. Liquidity pressure relief, moving towards a new stage in 2026 Raoul Pal pointed out that the second half of 2025 will experience a forced liquidity squeeze period in the market, and the function of this stage itself is to pave the way for the subsequent environment. He believes that by the year 2026, multiple conditions will be met simultaneously, including the Federal Reserve (.