BlockBeats message, April 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted, stating, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a composite indicator used to gauge how aggressively the derivatives market is going long/short, reflecting the current real opening direction of participants in the futures market. This index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when Bitcoin was at $73,925; since then, it has continued to decline, and today it has fallen to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d falling in tandem with market prices, further confirming that the market structure has weakened.
The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued rising; as of today, it has reached 18.6%. This means the market continues to generate forced liquidations on the long side, without allowing the structure to recover. A red histogram dominated by short liquidations has not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains at a high level and the clearly red histogram does not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation equilibrium is starting to recover.
A reversal in both indicators occurs in sync, mutually corroborating each other. Bitcoin’s price has already fallen by about 11% from the peak of $74,883; currently, there is no basis in the derivatives market structure that supports a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs are continuously cleared, and a short squeeze is nearly nowhere to be seen. Current stance: avoid risk. The main downside risks are: if liquidation-forcing pressure persists, and the held-position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downside pressure for Bitcoin to break below $66,000 will intensify accordingly."
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