Citigroup slashes Bitcoin and Ethereum 12-month price targets, stating that stalled U.S. crypto legislation weakens upward catalysts.

Citigroup has recently lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a more conservative outlook from major Wall Street institutions regarding the mid-term prospects of the cryptocurrency market. In the report, Citigroup stated that it has reduced the Bitcoin target price from $143,000 to $112,000, and the Ethereum target price from $4,304 to $3,175. The core reason for this adjustment is that the legislative progress on U.S. cryptocurrency assets has not met expectations, with regulatory catalysts that could potentially drive market reevaluation being delayed.

Citigroup believes that the slowdown in the U.S. Congress’s progress on the cryptocurrency market structure bill is the main reason for this downward revision of forecasts. The report specifically mentions that the Clarity Act is facing obstacles in the Senate, which involves disagreements over stablecoin regulations, and the operational legislative window for 2026 is gradually narrowing. For the market, this means that policies that could have improved regulatory visibility, encouraged institutional participation, and increased ETF demand are unlikely to materialize in the short term.

Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders stated in the report, “Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and capital flows, but the opportunity window for U.S. legislation is shrinking this year.”

In terms of the extent of revision, Citigroup’s attitude towards both major cryptocurrencies has clearly become more cautious. The new Bitcoin target price is approximately 21.7% lower than the original estimate, while Ethereum has been lowered by about 26.2%. This not only indicates that the bank has reduced its expectations for regulatory benefits but also suggests that, under macroeconomic uncertainties and policy delays, the market’s mid-term valuation models are being recalibrated.
Bitcoin and Ethereum still have upside potential, but the baseline scenario has weakened.
Even so, Citigroup has not completely turned bearish. Compared to their previously more optimistic expectations, Citigroup now clearly believes that the slope of the upward trend in the cryptocurrency market over the next year will be more gradual.
Notably, Citigroup has provided both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios: under a potential recession scenario, Bitcoin could drop to $58,000, while Ethereum might fall to $1,198. However, in a more optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could still reach $165,000, and Ethereum could rise to $4,488. This indicates that Citigroup does not deny the long-term upward trend but believes that mid-term performance will be highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory progress.
Ethereum faces higher sensitivity.
Compared to Bitcoin, Citigroup appears to maintain a more cautious stance on Ethereum. The bank believes that Ethereum’s subsequent performance will be particularly influenced by indicators such as on-chain usage activity, and the valuation recovery of ETH depends not only on the policy environment but also on improvements in actual network activity. However, Citigroup also mentioned that trends in stablecoins and tokenization could still support market interest in the Ethereum ecosystem in the future.

Citigroup pointed out in the report, “Ethereum is particularly sensitive to user activity indicators, which have been weak recently, but trends in stablecoins and tokenization may increase interest and usage.”

This statement also reflects the recent market differentiation in perception regarding the two major assets: Bitcoin is still more often viewed as a beneficiary of macro liquidity and policy expectations, while Ethereum is more easily influenced by on-chain activity, application adoption, and the speed of ecosystem growth.

From Citigroup’s adjustment, it appears that while ETH still has upside potential, its path to valuation recovery is clearly more dependent on fundamental verification compared to BTC.

The market may temporarily maintain a range-bound oscillation.
Citigroup notes that before legislative clarity is further established, Bitcoin may first consolidate around $70,000. This means that, although the market has not completely lost its upward narrative, in the absence of new policy catalysts, prices are more likely to digest uncertainty within a range in the short term rather than quickly embark on a new round of unilateral upward movement.
The report also indicates that if the Democratic Party gains more congressional seats in the November midterm elections, the likelihood of future cryptocurrency legislation passing may further decline due to internal divisions on crypto regulation, with some proposals advocating for restrictions on officials profiting from crypto assets and strengthening anti-money laundering regulations. This shows that Citigroup’s valuation downgrade is not only based on the current legislative impasse but also reflects a forward-looking assessment of future political environment risks.
Wall Street reassesses regulatory benefits.
Citigroup’s significant reduction of Bitcoin and Ethereum’s target prices does not indicate a complete bearish stance on the cryptocurrency market, but rather shows that Wall Street is reassessing to what extent and at what speed “regulatory clarity” can translate into price catalysts. Originally, the market hoped that progress in U.S. legislation would bring institutional adoption, ETF capital flows, and valuation expansion, but as this narrative is delayed, asset price models naturally need to be adjusted downward.