BBC Exclusive Interview with Larry Fink: Oil Prices Rising to $150 Could Trigger Global Recession, AI Era Benefits for Blue-Collar Workers

Asset management giant BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in an interview with BBC that if oil prices surge to $150 per barrel, a global recession could be imminent. He also called on society to reassess the value of blue-collar trades like electricians and water technicians amid the AI boom, believing these jobs will be far more important than some white-collar positions that may soon be replaced by AI.

Tensions escalate in Iran conflict, oil prices soar, potentially triggering a global economic downturn

Since the conflict with Iran began, international oil prices have been highly volatile. Fink bluntly said in the interview that if Iran continues to threaten shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire, oil prices could stay above $100 to $150 per barrel for the long term, severely impacting the global economy:

If oil prices stay at $150 for an extended period, we will face a global recession.

As a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its near disruption has plunged many Asia-Pacific countries into crisis.

Fink also pointed out a more optimistic scenario: if the war ends, Iran re-enters the international community, and peace is restored among nations, oil prices could stabilize or even fall below pre-war levels.

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AI transforming employment, leading to significant growth in blue-collar demand such as electricians and water technicians

Fink also discussed the structural impact of AI on the job market. He believes that while AI may replace some traditional office jobs, it will simultaneously create a high demand for skilled blue-collar workers like electricians, welders, and water technicians, because building and maintaining AI infrastructure heavily depends on these physical trades.

We have misclassified many jobs and misjudged many people. Some may not be suited for banking, media, or law, but could excel as skilled tradespeople. We need to realign our approach now.

Fink pointed out that after World War II, American society heavily promoted college education, which inadvertently lowered respect and valuation for technical trades. Long-term portrayals in television media have cast water and electrical workers in a negative light, while investment bankers are often glamorized in dramas. This cultural bias has had a profound impact on career choices across society.

He urged society to revalue blue-collar professions: “We need to make water and electrical work something to be proud of. The careers built in these fields are no less than any white-collar job.”

AI valuation surge ≠ a financial bubble

In response to concerns that AI investments are overheated, Fink was clear. He emphasized that AI is the core battleground in the current global technology race, and if the U.S. does not invest actively, it will ultimately lose to China:

I do not think this is a bubble. Maybe one or two AI companies will fail, which is reasonable.

However, Fink also pointed out that the biggest current obstacle is “high energy costs.” He criticized Europe for only talking about energy transition without action and called on the U.S., despite being energy self-sufficient, to actively develop renewable energy sources like solar power to ensure cheap electricity to support rapid AI expansion.

In contrast, China is investing heavily in solar and nuclear energy, demonstrating a more forward-looking and effective energy strategy.

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Financial system remains resilient; 2008 crisis unlikely to recur

Some market analysts have observed similarities between the current financial environment and the pre-2008 financial crisis, including soaring energy prices and private credit funds restricting investor redemptions, raising systemic risk concerns.

Fink firmly denied these comparisons, stating there is no basis for them. He emphasized that today’s financial institutions are far more robust than in 2008, and the problematic funds account for only a tiny fraction of the overall market. Overall investor confidence remains strong: “I see no similarities at all, none whatsoever.”

This article, BBC Exclusive: Oil at $150 Could Trigger Global Recession, AI Boosts Blue-Collar Jobs, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.