XRP weakens under pressure from low demand and risk-off sentiment in the market

Ripple (XRP) remains trading around $1.40 as of Wednesday, amid optimism from Donald Trump about ongoing negotiations with Iran.

However, geopolitical tensions remain high as the Strait of Hormuz— a strategic shipping route— continues to be restricted, and Iran denies negotiations with the US. Meanwhile, Israel affirms it will continue offensive operations to protect its interests regardless of any ceasefire or agreement that may be formed.

Overall, crypto market sentiment remains weak, reflected by the Fear & Greed Index staying at 14, indicating “extreme fear.” Although there are slight improvements due to positive statements from Trump, the impact on investors’ risk appetite is still limited.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: Alternative

XRP lacks direction as demand from both retail and institutional investors weakens

Interest in XRP derivatives is cooling down. Open interest (OI) in futures contracts has hovered around $2.39 billion in the first two days of the week, after reaching $2.87 billion on March 17, but quickly declined due to risk aversion.

According to data from CoinGlass, retail investor participation is significantly lower than the peak of $10.94 billion— when XRP hit a record high of $3.66 in July. If demand in the derivatives market does not recover soon, XRP’s recovery could face further obstacles.

XRP Futures Open Interest (OI) | Source: CoinGlass

Similarly, inflows into XRP spot ETFs have not shown positive signs. Trading activity on Monday was quite subdued; despite recording $1.98 million in inflows on Friday, overall sentiment remains weak. Data from SoSoValue indicates that since March 6, US-listed ETFs have only had two days of positive inflows, totaling $1.21 billion, with net assets under management at $1.01 billion.

XRP ETF Capital Flows | Source: CoinGlass

A report on digital asset capital flows by CoinShares earlier this week also highlights that the “hawkish” stance of the US Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts in 2026 continues to pressure the market, amid ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

“Digital asset investment products saw $230 million in inflows last week, a clear slowdown compared to previous periods. While some attribute this to prolonged Iran tensions, we believe the key factor is how the market interprets the Fed meeting as a ‘pause but still hawkish,’” CoinShares states.

Technical Analysis: XRP’s Recovery Stalls

XRP is fluctuating above $1.40 amid a generally bearish trend, with prices remaining below the long-term downward trendline. Key moving averages continue to act as resistance around $1.49, while the SuperTrend indicator marks a dynamic resistance zone at $1.58, making recovery challenging.

On the technical side, the Parabolic SAR has moved below the price at around $1.36 on the daily chart, easing some downward pressure but not enough to confirm a new uptrend. Additionally, MACD is weakening and approaching the zero line, indicating diminishing buying momentum after a rise to $1.54.

Daily XRP/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView

The RSI remains near the high end of the 40s, maintaining a neutral stance rather than signaling strong bullish momentum. If this indicator stays below 50, selling pressure remains a risk.

Key resistance levels are at the 50-day EMA around $1.49, followed by the recent high near $1.54. Breaking these levels could open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $1.67 and further up to the 200-day EMA at $1.92.

On the downside, immediate support is in the $1.38–$1.40 range, supporting the Parabolic SAR at $1.36. If this area is broken, the price could continue to decline toward $1.25.