Original Title: “Trump, the World’s Largest Oil Trader”

Author: David, Deep潮 TechFlow

How much is a single post worth?

At 7:05 a.m. Eastern Time on March 23, Trump posted a message in all caps on Truth Social, saying: “The United States and Iran have had very good, productive talks over the past two days,” and he has ordered a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian factories and energy facilities.

When this post was made, the US stock market hadn’t opened yet. But the futures market is live.

Within minutes, Dow futures rose over 1,000 points, and S&P 500 futures increased by 2.7%. Brent crude oil dropped from $113 per barrel straight down to $98, a decline of over 13%.

Foreign media outlet Forbes later calculated that from the time the post was released until the market digested the news, the total market capitalization of US stocks increased by approximately $1.7 trillion.

If you’re an ordinary trader, posting a message about oil supply that causes global oil prices to plummet by 13%, regulators would likely come knocking within 24 hours.

But if you’re the US president, that’s called diplomacy.

Then Iran said: We haven’t talked to him.

Iran’s state news agency quoted a security official saying there was no direct or indirect dialogue between Tehran and Washington. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi was more direct on X:

“Every week when the market opens, Trump makes such statements to push down oil prices. This time, the five-day deadline just happens to coincide with the close of the energy market trading week.”

News of this reached the US, and the market’s gains were nearly halved. But by the close, the Dow still rose 631 points, and Brent crude settled at $99.94, falling below $100 for the first time since March 11. In other words, the market chose to believe Trump’s version, at least partially.

A single post, in one hour, swings trillions of dollars back and forth.

This is less about a president making diplomatic statements and more about the world’s largest oil trader placing orders.

And his tools aren’t futures contracts—they’re the US military and Truth Social social media. While other traders use money to go long or short, he uses the switch of war.

According to CNBC, about 15 minutes before the post—around 6:50 a.m. New York time—there was a sudden spike in trading volume in both S&P 500 futures and oil futures.

In the thin pre-market liquidity, such sudden, isolated volume surges are very noticeable.

Fifteen minutes later, the post was made, oil prices plummeted, and stock indices soared. That means whoever acted at 6:50 a.m. profited after 7:05 a.m. When it comes to commodities, precisely positioning before major news is one of the classic forms of insider trading.

Image source: CNBC, pre-market trading volume in S&P 500

Last April, during a period of intense market volatility caused by Trump’s repeated flip-flopping on tariffs, Senator Adam Schiff publicly questioned: Who knew what he was going to say before he posted? No one provided an answer then.

This time, CNBC contacted the SEC and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and both agencies responded identically: refusing to comment.

And this isn’t the first time. Looking back, Trump’s ability to move oil prices with his words has been happening for nearly a decade.

Talking Business

Since 2011, Trump has been discussing oil prices on social media, even before he was president. One of his daily routines was criticizing OPEC for market manipulation. But criticizing is one thing—posting complaints on Twitter as a real estate developer is another.

What truly turned him from a “commentator” into a “trader” was a deal in 2020.

That year, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, causing a global economic shutdown and a sharp drop in oil demand. To make matters worse, Saudi Arabia and Russia engaged in a price war, increasing production to compete for market share, causing oil prices to fall below $20 per barrel. Many US shale oil companies went bankrupt, and the entire industry was devastated.

Logically, low oil prices should benefit consumers—gasoline becomes cheaper. A president concerned with voters’ interests would welcome this.

But Trump did the opposite.

He summoned CEOs of oil companies to the White House for a meeting. Then he personally called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Putin, persuading them to cut production massively with OPEC. The goal was clear:

To push oil prices back up.

He then tweeted hinting that a production cut agreement was imminent, and that day WTI crude surged 25%, marking the largest single-day increase ever.

Why save oil prices? Because the struggling shale oil CEOs are his biggest political donors.

According to reports, oil magnate Harold Hamm saw his personal assets evaporate by $3 billion during the oil price crash, and soon after, lobbied Trump to intervene. NBC’s headline at the time was straightforward: “Trump wanted to lower oil prices, but now he’s talking to oil executives about raising them.”

The essence of this deal: consumers worldwide pay higher prices, profits flow to his political donors, and he personally gains campaign funds from the next election.

If this was just political quid pro quo, it could be classified as “political interest exchange.” But Trump did something no politician would—he openly admitted it.

At subsequent rallies, he repeatedly told supporters:

“We drove oil prices too low, had to rescue the oil companies. I called OPEC, I called Russia and Saudi Arabia, told them prices need to go up.”

The crowd cheered loudly.

Image source: Visual Capitalist

In 2023, the academic journal Energy Policy published a paper tracing all of Trump’s social media posts related to oil from his 2015 campaign announcement until his account was banned in 2021.

The conclusion: His tweets indeed had a quantifiable impact on WTI crude futures prices, significantly amplifying speculative activity in the market.

In other words, academia confirmed what traders have long known: this man’s mouth can move global oil prices. The 2020 story proved he not only can, but is willing to, and his motivation isn’t national interest but his own financial network.

From his first term to now, Trump’s oil trading tools have evolved. Twitter became Truth Social, and criticizing OPEC turned into pausing strikes on Iran…

But the logic has never changed: using the president’s unique information advantage and policy power to create price volatility in the world’s largest commodity market.

From Words to Actions

Over the past decade, Trump has profited from “influence” in the oil market.

His words—whether they make others profit or lose—are political capital. But by 2026, this business’s nature began to shift.

In early March, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg separately reported the same news: Trump’s two sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, are investing in a military drone company called Powerus.

Donald Jr. is also a shareholder and advisory board member of Unusual Machines, a drone component company, holding about 330,000 shares worth roughly $4 million.

He joined this company in November 2024, just weeks after his father’s election victory. Prior to that, he had no experience in drones or military industries.

Unusual Machines later secured a US Army contract to produce 3,500 drone motors, with plans to add another 20,000 parts in 2026.

Donald Jr. is also a partner at the venture capital firm 1789 Capital, which, according to the Financial Times, had at least four portfolio companies receiving defense contracts from the Trump administration in 2025, totaling over $735 million.

Forbes estimates that before his father’s inauguration in January 2025, Donald Jr.’s net worth was about $50 million, which had multiplied sixfold by year’s end.

Then, on February 28, 2026, his father launched a war against Iran.

Drones became the hallmark weapon of this conflict. The New York Times reported that both US and Iranian forces extensively used drones, with costs only a fraction of traditional missiles. The Pentagon is pushing an $1.1 billion procurement plan to deploy over 200,000 US-made attack drones by 2027.

A few days into the war, Eric Trump posted on X: “Drones are the future.”

Conflict of interest is obvious. A president’s son enters the defense industry after his father takes office, and the companies he invests in secure government contracts while his father wages a war that heavily relies on those products.

Not only oil, but the Trump family’s business has expanded into warfare itself. Oil is how he makes money with his mouth; drones are how his son makes money with his hands.

Today is the first day of the pause. In five days, either negotiations succeed, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and oil prices continue to fall; or no deal is reached, Iran keeps the strait blocked, and everything reverts to the status quo.

The world’s largest oil trader has issued a five-day options contract to the market. The strike price—whether war or peace—no one knows.

But one thing is certain: If oil prices rise, his son’s drone company gets more orders; if prices fall, he wins again on Truth Social.

No matter the outcome, he won’t lose money.

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