Trump Calls for "Controlling the Strait of Hormuz Together with the United States" During Negotiations; Iran Counters as Fake News: Pentagon Preparing Island Seizure Behind the Scenes

Trump announced on March 23 that he would delay strikes on Iran’s energy facilities for 5 days, citing “very good and productive” talks between the two countries and “major consensus on several key issues.” He further stated that an agreement could be reached within the 5-day window, and that the Strait of Hormuz would “soon open,” even proposing a “joint control” of the strait by the U.S. and Iran. He described Iran’s officials as “very reasonable,” deliberately avoiding mention of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Trump’s core condition: Iran must completely abandon its nuclear program and current uranium stockpiles. He also warned that if negotiations fail, “we will continue large-scale bombing,” and stated that regime change in Iran is “inevitable”—a mix of diplomatic goodwill and military threats underpins this round of negotiations.

Islamabad Coordination: Multiple Countries Mediate, U.S. Presence Large

Diplomatically, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, and other mediators are actively pushing for direct U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad this week. The U.S. delegation may include: Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner (Trump’s son-in-law), and Vice President JD Vance.

Iran’s side, with Kharif considered a key influential figure recently, is rumored to be representing Iran at the Islamabad talks. However, Kharif explicitly denied on X that he has any plans to participate, stating, “I have no involvement in negotiations.”

Iranian Official: This is Fake News Manipulating Markets

Iran’s response sharply contrasts with Trump’s optimistic statements. Chairman Kharif posted on X: “We have not engaged in any negotiations with the U.S. The fake news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets.” Iran also fully denies any direct or indirect communication with the Trump administration.

This fundamental discrepancy—U.S. claims “progress in negotiations,” Iran insists “no negotiations are happening”—makes it difficult to determine whether the so-called “major consensus” is a real diplomatic breakthrough or just a signal from Trump to manage market sentiment. Notably, on the same day Trump announced the delay, Brent crude oil prices plummeted from a high of $119 to $81, indicating markets are highly sensitive to diplomatic signals.

Pentagon Simultaneously Preparing: Kharg Island Military Plan Emerges

Meanwhile, Axios reports that the Trump administration is evaluating a military plan targeting Kharg Island, including options such as a ground assault or naval blockade.

Kharg Island, about 15 miles off Iran’s coast, handles up to 90% of Iran’s oil exports and is vital to Tehran’s economy. Control or blockade of the island would effectively cut off Iran’s oil revenue. Currently, three U.S. Marine expeditionary units are assembling in the Middle East, with over 2,500 troops expected to arrive within days.

Military advisor retired Major General Mark Montgomery suggests an alternative: weaken Iran’s military capabilities over approximately two weeks, then use destroyers and fighter jets to escort commercial oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz—avoiding the high risks of landing operations. White House officials say, “If he decides on amphibious landing, it will happen, but no decision has been made.” The Pentagon estimates that any ground operation would require about a month of sustained airstrikes beforehand to weaken Iran’s defenses.

5-Day Window: Last Diplomatic Chance or Buffer for Military Action?

The 5-day delay set by Trump essentially creates a dual countdown: if diplomacy succeeds, the Hormuz crisis could be resolved through negotiations this week; if it fails, the Kharg Island plan and Marine deployments are already in place.

This “talk at the negotiation table, prepare behind the scenes” dual-track strategy is familiar in Trump’s Middle East policy. The question remains whether the “5-day window” is the eve of a diplomatic breakthrough or the countdown to military action, especially as one side denies any negotiations are ongoing. The true nature of this window—whether it signals peace or war—remains uncertain.