Market rally continues! Bitcoin returns to $75,000 level, ETF inflows persist

Bitcoin broke the $74,000 mark on Monday (16th), continuing its recent bullish momentum, driven by institutional investors returning to the crypto market with significant capital. The rally was mainly fueled by strong demand from major financial institutions, with global crypto ETF net inflows reaching approximately $1 billion last week, indicating sustained confidence among institutions. Market sentiment has clearly shifted to bullish, with analysts estimating a 68% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000, and only a 32% chance of dropping to $60,000. This optimistic outlook reflects changing market dynamics, as traders who had maintained short positions for weeks are suddenly turning bullish.

Bitcoin continued its rebound from March 16 to 17. On March 16, Bitcoin closed at $74,759.51, with a daily high of $74,873.34; by the morning of March 17, it had risen to $75,937. In tandem with the price strength, data from SoSoValue shows that U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw over $62 million in net inflows on March 16, indicating ongoing institutional buying.

Bitcoin’s Two-Day Rally Continues Last Week’s Rebound

Looking at the price action, this upward movement is a continuation of the rebound established last week. Bitcoin closed at $72,789.91 on March 15, then rose to $74,759.51 on March 16, a daily increase of about 2.7%. On March 17, the price pushed higher, briefly surpassing $75,937, demonstrating that short-term bullish momentum remains intact.

From a market rhythm perspective, March 16 mainly involved further lifting of weekend accumulated buy orders, while March 17 saw continued upward pressure. This suggests that after last week’s warming trend, there was no significant profit-taking, and the market is testing higher price levels.

ETF Capital Flows Remain the Main Driving Force

The most direct factor supporting this rally is the inflow of spot ETF funds. The current upward trend continues the capital reflow that began last week. From March 9 to 13, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced five consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $763.4 million. By March 16, ETFs added another $62 million in net inflows, with Fidelity’s FBTC attracting $64.5 million, making it the main buyer on that day.

This indicates that the Bitcoin rebound from March 16 to 17 is not solely driven by market sentiment but also by ongoing institutional investments. For the market, whether ETF net inflows continue has become a key indicator of Bitcoin’s short-term strength.

Bitcoin Is Still in the Recovery Phase

It’s worth noting that although Bitcoin has regained levels near $75,000, its current trend is more of a recovery rather than a full return to its all-time high. On March 13, Bitcoin reached $73,927, and on March 17, it again broke above $75,000, showing ongoing recovery from earlier declines. However, compared to the all-time high of $126,200, there is still a significant gap.

This suggests that the current rebound is more about “capital and sentiment recovery” rather than the start of a new full-blown bull market. Technical analysts warn that $75,000 remains a critical resistance level that will determine the sustainability of the current rally. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through and holds this level as support, the next target could extend to $80,000, and possibly $84,000. Some analysts even believe that if momentum continues to build, $90,000 could be within reach. Conversely, if the breakout fails, prices could quickly fall back to support around $64,000. If that level is broken, further downside risks may emerge.