80 million DOGE sold in one week: Are retail investors giving up just before the price surges?

Dogecoin (DOGE) is stuck in a prolonged downtrend, causing price movement to stall within a narrowing range. The growth momentum has slowed, while buyers seem to be struggling to make any significant breakout.

Signs of a Breakout Formation, but Investor Confidence Is Wavering

A breakout pattern is gradually forming, but declining investor confidence could weaken the recovery efforts before the bullish trend can fully ignite.

Dogecoin Investors Start Selling, Though on a Small Scale

In the past week, some retail investors quietly offloaded their holdings in Dogecoin. Wallets holding from 100 DOGE to 100,000 DOGE sold over 80 million DOGE, equivalent to about $7.2 million, within 7 days. Although this volume isn’t large enough to immediately impact the price, the behavior signals noteworthy underlying sentiment.

Retail selling indicates waning confidence among small investors. If this sentiment spreads to larger investors, a major sell-off could occur, exerting greater pressure on the DOGE market.

Dogecoin Holders | Source: SantimentData from Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) also shows long-term investors are gradually losing patience. The sudden spikes in CDD over the past 11 days have surpassed any levels recorded in February, indicating that long-held DOGE coins are being moved more frequently. This is a concerning shift, especially since long-term investors have historically acted as a stabilizing force for the price.

DOGE CDD Index | Source: SantimentThe increase in CDD activity signals that confidence among long-term investors—who significantly influence Dogecoin’s price trend—is weakening. This raises the risk of stronger selling pressure, potentially driving the price lower.

DOGE Price Action Could Go Either Way

Currently, DOGE is trading at $0.091 within a descending wedge pattern—a technical structure often signaling a potential bullish reversal. However, declining confidence from both retail and long-term investors poses a risk that this pattern may not lead to a breakout, but rather a continuation of the downtrend.

In the short term, DOGE is expected to fluctuate around a key support level of $0.088. Meanwhile, the resistance at $0.103 remains a significant obstacle, and breaking above this level seems unlikely given current market sentiment. Nonetheless, the risk of falling below $0.088 appears limited, as overall selling pressure is showing signs of weakening, even though buying momentum remains modest.

DOGE Price Analysis | Source: TradingViewNotably, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is showing a bullish divergence compared to the price action. While DOGE forms lower lows, the MFI is creating higher lows—a classic sign that selling pressure is waning. This suggests that buying interest could soon return, even if the current price hasn’t fully reflected this shift.

DOGE MFI Indicator | Source: TradingViewIf this bullish divergence is confirmed, DOGE could break out of the descending wedge with stronger momentum. A successful breakout would turn the $0.103 resistance into support, invalidating bearish arguments and opening the door for a sustainable recovery. Such confirmation would mark a significant change in DOGE’s technical structure and offer renewed hope for investors.