2026 Everyone's Buying $I'm F***ing Here, Let Me Do a Simple Analysis.

At the beginning of 2026, the US made a big move in Venezuela, and the heat around Greenland is also intensifying. It seems to point to a question: after the tariff issue took a temporary ceasefire in 2025, geopolitically the US will focus on its near-shore issues.

In 2025, the US passed two bills: the "Big and Beautiful Act" and the "Genius Act". The core of both revolves around dollar supply expansion and US debt expansion. Combined, the idea is to bundle newly-issued debt with cryptocurrency, where cryptocurrency serves as the credit backing for newly-issued US debt, avoiding damage to dollar credit from currency expansion. 2026 will continue this theme, with US debt continuing to expand, and the credit backing issue for newly-issued dollars will run throughout the year.

That's why we have the opening-year hot events in Venezuela and Greenland. Trump declared a state of emergency for Venezuelan oil revenues; Venezuelan oil and Greenland's resources, just like cryptocurrency, can all serve as credit collateral for newly-issued dollars.

After resolving the collateral issue, the Federal Reserve can then begin a bold rate-cutting process. Otherwise, premature rate cuts can only further weaken dollar credit, leading to further skyrocketing of non-sovereign credit currencies and many other assets, causing loss of control.

Combining with current progress, the existing $4.1 trillion debt ceiling will be reached by end of April. The first half faces further negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling, while May marks a change in Fed leadership. If the dollar collateral issue progresses smoothly, 2026's second half could see a significant rate-cutting process, estimated at 100bp or more, alongside rapid US debt expansion.

If the near-shore issue doesn't progress smoothly and fails to resolve the collateral problem for newly-issued dollars, 2026's rate-cutting process may continue the tangled situation of the previous two years. The whole year may only see two cuts totaling 50bp.

The dollar index, as an indicator reflecting the relative strength of the dollar against major currency baskets (excluding the Chinese yuan), will overall maintain a stable-with-upside trend in 2026, with the dollar smile curve entering the uptrend section of its latter half. The dollar will continue to strengthen.

The above dollar trends will clearly affect the dynamics of other currencies #加密 #including the Chinese yuan#BTC #, gold, and commodities. Understanding the change logic of the dollar is paramount, so the dollar is presented as the first piece of 2026 annual outlook. Meanwhile, the US has been orchestrating and tightening the dollar, at least won't lose.

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