BTC is under the threat of $588 million liquidation risk, with symmetrical upside and downside risks.

The current BTC price is around $90,715. According to Coinglass data, the market is facing an interesting symmetric risk pattern: a breakout above $94,592 will trigger a $588 million short squeeze wave, while a breakdown below $86,687 will trigger an equivalent long squeeze. This means that regardless of which direction BTC moves, there is about a 4% margin before large-scale liquidations occur.

Symmetry of Liquidation Risks

Two key price points

Based on Coinglass data, the liquidation distribution on major CEXs currently shows a clear symmetrical feature:

This symmetry indicates that market participants’ leverage positions are relatively balanced, with bulls and bears reaching a certain equilibrium around the $90,715 level.

Risk Concentration Analysis

The liquidation intensity of $588 million seems large, but it’s important to understand that this is not an exact prediction of liquidation scale. Instead, it reflects the relative density of positions likely to be liquidated near this price point. Comparing with other data from relevant sources, this liquidation intensity is in the medium-high range.

For example, in ETH, if ETH breaks above $3,237, the short liquidation intensity reaches $1.104 billion; if it falls below $2,936, the long liquidation intensity is $1.071 billion. Compared to BTC, the liquidation intensity is slightly lower, but considering BTC’s higher trading volume (past 24 hours: $12.59 billion), this indicates that market participants are using leverage more cautiously on BTC.

Insights on Market Leverage Risks

Real risks faced by traders

• Long traders should be cautious of the downside risk at $86,687, where a large number of long positions could be liquidated
• Short traders face similar risks above $94,592, with comparable liquidation intensity
• Price oscillations within this range could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, but the risk is relatively dispersed
• According to relevant data, $114 million was liquidated across the entire network in the past 24 hours, indicating ongoing liquidation activity driven by market volatility

Why is symmetrical liquidation intensity important?

Symmetrical liquidation distribution generally indicates a relatively balanced market, neither overly bullish nor overly bearish. This balance may persist for some time, but once broken, it often leads to larger volatility. Relevant data shows that the whale long-short position ratio on Hyperliquid is 0.94, close to 1:1, further confirming the market’s balanced state.

Key Focus Areas Moving Forward

Based on current data, market participants should pay attention to the following key levels:

• $94,592: a breakout above this level could accelerate short liquidations and upward movement
• $86,687: a breakdown below this level could accelerate long liquidations and downward movement
• Around $90,715: the current relative equilibrium point, where the price may seek direction in the short term

Summary

BTC is currently in a relatively balanced but risk-concentrated position. The $588 million symmetric liquidation intensity indicates that market leverage positions are relatively healthy, but it also means that once key levels are broken, chain reactions of liquidations could be triggered. From a trading perspective, this pattern should not be overinterpreted as a bullish or bearish signal but rather seen as a reflection of the market’s need for more directional clarity. The key is to observe whether BTC can break through one of these two liquidation risk points; the manner and strength of such a breakout will determine subsequent liquidation scales.