The market has rebounded a few days ago, but it continues to fluctuate within this range. I can't predict the short-term movement, nor can I forecast how high the rebound can go, but one thing is certain—the market will eventually fall back below the annual moving average.

The weekly rhythm is about building a bottom deep within the annual line. You see, every short-term rebound is suppressed by the long-term "mean reversion" force, ultimately forming a long U-shaped dip.

From a long-term perspective: Altcoins spend 70~90% of their time spiraling downward below the annual line. Even value coins spend 30~40% of their time submerged below the annual line, forming lows. Bitcoin has been oscillating above the annual line for over two years, and now it’s expected to decline below the annual line for a year—this is not surprising at all.

When will the market bottom? It’s when participants collectively go on strike. Speculators exit en masse, leaving only a few investors holding firm, and the market enters a prolonged low-volume consolidation. At this point, even a small amount of capital entering can break this balance.

But most people always fail to see through this. They are used to chasing high at the top and then cutting losses and running before the super U-shaped bottom forms. The market rotates in cycles like this—there’s no forever upward trend, nor forever downward. Only when the tide recedes can you see who is swimming naked. Experienced investors who have gone through multiple cycles are often able to calmly navigate each bear market stage.