#比特币价格预测 After reading Pompliano's latest insights, I find it quite interesting. He believes that the likelihood of a significant drop in Q1 next year is low, mainly because volatility has already been noticeably compressed. This logic actually holds up—if volatility is compressed to this extent, a 70-80% crash would indeed be quite outrageous.

However, there's a detail worth pondering: the absence of the expected crazy rally at the end of the year, which he instead describes as a "factor reducing the risk of a crash." My understanding is that this mild trend actually indicates that market sentiment is relatively rational and not easily triggered into extreme behavior.

Looking at the long term, he mentioned that Bitcoin has increased by 100% over two years and nearly 300% over three years, which is indeed monster-level performance. Short-term disappointment is normal, but over a longer timeline, this bear market may not be as terrifying. Of course, the premise is that you can withstand the volatility and keep a steady mindset.