#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 $PEPE $BIFI $ETH

💥Non-farm payroll data once again shows a rollercoaster, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut in January has become a certainty!

December employment data drama: only 50,000 new jobs added, a sharp cut of 76,000 from the previous month, the worst performance since the pandemic. The hiring market has completely dried up, with only 584,000 added for the whole year—less than 61,000 per month in the private sector— the weakest since 2003!

But that's not even the most outrageous part: the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.4%. What's going on? The answer is quite painful—it's not that more jobs are available, but that more and more people are simply not looking for work anymore. Some influencers even say this is a signal of the Fed's "lying flat" trend.

The only thing that looks somewhat acceptable is that wages increased by 3.8%, indeed outpacing inflation. But ultimately, the entire labor market is like a patient being forced to hold on, seemingly solid on the surface but actually on the brink of collapse.

Market reactions are very direct: the probability of rate cuts in January in the interest rate swap market instantly drops to zero, with all bets on the first rate cut being moved to June. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield soared, and traders have completely entered "wait-and-see" mode, with no one daring to act.

PGIM bluntly states that the Fed might "skip a rate hike," while Natixis believes the entire rate cut pace needs to slow down. The suspense ultimately points to the March CPI data—that will be the real test for the Fed. Will rate cuts start in June? It all depends on whether inflation gives face. The future of the dollar remains uncertain!