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Recently, many people have asked me, is it a bull market or a bear market right now? Honestly, I’m a bit confused myself. This is the hardest part of trading—the market swings, and so does our mindset. But we can clarify this through data.
First, let’s look at the US stock market. The Nasdaq shows clear signs of topping out on the weekly chart, but it stubbornly refuses to go down. Instead, on the daily chart, it’s forming a high-level converging triangle, which is a typical continuation pattern. The S&P 500 is even more straightforward, having already broken its all-time high. The daily chart shows a very clear ascending wedge, indicating a strong upward trend that can’t be ignored.
Now, let’s look at Bitcoin. The monthly chart shows a second death cross since January 2022, which is quite interesting. After breaking below the upward trendline on the weekly chart, it’s now experiencing a downward correction with a rebound. Honestly, a quick reversal at this point is unlikely. The key short-term level is the $100,000 mark—whether it can hold above that will determine the continuation of the trend.
Looking at these three indicators together, ①②③ are all already at high levels. So, what’s next? I’d like to hear your thoughts on this. If you have a unique perspective or have spotted any signals, let’s discuss in the comments.