High-end photoresists have always been regarded as a key bottleneck in the industry. But those who see through this game know that the situation is far from as absolute as it seems.

True monopoly only exists in the top-tier products used for EUV—ultra-high-precision photoresists below 7 nanometers. But the ceiling for this market is clear: domestic EUV lithography machines are still in the R&D stage, and according to the schedule, they will only gradually be put into application within two to three years. The key point is that by that time, the supporting domestically produced photoresists are very likely to have completed adaptation and mass production verification. So, in terms of the timeline, the bottleneck issue is not too unfavorable for domestic development.

Looking at the 7-nanometer and above market—this is actually no secret anymore. Domestic alternative photoresists have already begun trial production, but earlier they were limited by supply and certification cycles. Once import channels are restricted, it presents an excellent opportunity for domestic manufacturers to compete for market share. From this perspective, reconfiguring the supply chain could be beneficial to the market structure.

One last point worth considering: if sanctions expand into basic materials for civilian use, the game rules will change. The means and scope of countermeasures will no longer be limited to a specific product or technology. Such an escalation often indicates that both sides are prepared for a longer-term confrontation. Whoever breaks this boundary first will have to pay for the subsequent chain reactions.