MSCI delays removal of Strategy, but the hidden crisis behind the frozen shares runs deeper

Relief or Delay? MSCI’s “Postponement” Decision

According to the latest news, MSCI announced that it will temporarily not remove digital asset companies like MicroStrategy (renamed to Strategy) from its global equity indices. This decision has eased market concerns, with MSTR’s after-hours stock price rising nearly 6%. However, the outcome is far from as optimistic as it appears on the surface. MSCI’s actual approach is: neither to directly exclude these companies nor to fully accept them, but to implement a series of restrictive measures that effectively freeze their status within the index.

The Truth Behind the Postponement

Seemingly Moderate Restrictions

MSCI explicitly stated in its latest announcement that, while maintaining Strategy and similar companies in the index, it has adopted the following restrictions:

• Not increasing the share count of these companies
• Not adjusting foreign inclusion factors or domestic inclusion factors
• Delaying additions or adjustments to their size segments

What is the actual effect of these measures? Simply put, they freeze these companies’ shares in the index. When Strategy issues new shares, passive funds will be unable to proportionally increase their holdings, directly limiting future capital inflows. For companies that attract investors with Bitcoin reserves, this is akin to being indirectly isolated.

The Real Views of Analysts

According to relevant information, different analysts interpret this decision quite differently:

The key point is that the consensus among analysts is: this is not the end, but a delay. MSCI will conduct a new review in February 2026, indicating that this controversy will continue.

The Other Side of Market Performance

Although MSTR rose 6% after hours, this masks a more severe reality: MSTR’s stock price has fallen about 70% from its 2024 high, currently around $154.34. In contrast, Bitcoin’s current price is $92,712.37, with a market cap of $1.85 trillion. This huge price gap reflects deep market doubts about the positioning of companies like Strategy.

The Core of the Controversy: Definition Issues

Is it a company or an investment tool?

MSCI’s decision to postpone removal does not address the fundamental issue. The core controversy highlighted in the news is: for companies with Bitcoin as their main asset/liability, should they be regarded as traditional enterprises or as leveraged crypto investment vehicles?

This question is important because:

• Strategy lacks GAAP profitability and cannot be valued using traditional P/E ratios
• The company’s value is entirely tied to Bitcoin price fluctuations
• Issuance of preferred shares raises concerns, as they lack the legal protections of traditional preferred stock

Why MSCI Hesitates

From MSCI’s perspective, directly removing such companies would face strong political pressure and market backlash. But fully accepting them would also contradict the logic of index construction. Implementing restrictions is a compromise: it preserves these companies’ index status while practically limiting their growth potential.

Future Risks

This decision temporarily alleviates concerns about forced selling, but the real risks remain:

• MSCI will conduct a new review in February 2026, and policies may be adjusted again
• Restrictions freeze passive fund inflows into Strategy, which is unfavorable for long-term stock prices
• Market consensus on the positioning of such companies is still lacking, and regulatory risks persist
• If Bitcoin prices fluctuate significantly, valuation pressures on these companies will intensify

Summary

MSCI’s postponement is a political compromise rather than a true resolution. While restrictions preserve Strategy’s index inclusion, they effectively freeze its growth potential, which is not good news for long-term investors. More importantly, this decision reflects ongoing fundamental disagreements between markets and regulators over the definition of “companies primarily holding Bitcoin.” The true status of Strategy and similar firms may only be clarified after the next review in February 2026. Until then, these companies will operate in a gray area of “neither fully accepted nor directly excluded.”