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2026.1.5
The market has been fluctuating and it's been 10 days since Christmas ended. I still hold my previous view.
I checked the Ethereum holdings over the past seven days, and the inflow still exceeds the outflow by hundreds of thousands of coins. Recently, the panic sentiment has been below 30. Can I think that the market's decline is creating panic, washing out all the small retail investors' chips, and then large institutions start accumulating? In the future, the crypto market will be a battle between institutions, and retail investors can only become scattered sand, no longer influencing the market trend, and they won't even have a chance to get on the table.
Currently, Bitcoin is at 92,500, approaching the upper Bollinger Band. It seems that after Christmas, the trend will first rise to touch the moving average, then retrace to touch the lower moving average. As for whether it will go down, then up, then down again, or vice versa, we can ignore that for now. Follow the rhythm and ride the wave. According to previous ideas, Bitcoin will have a small peak in January, which hasn't happened yet, near the Fibonacci 0.618 level, around 94,000. Recently, the main focus is on long contracts, and spot holdings can still be held.