In 2025, due to tightening global liquidity, increasing financial stress, and capital outflows, investors have increasingly favored safe-haven assets such as gold, while Bitcoin has come under relative pressure. Spot gold continues to strengthen, currently finding support near $4,000 and is expected to move toward the $4,500 resistance zone. In contrast, Bitcoin has pulled back after reaching an all-time high in October and, constrained by tight financing and market leverage pressures, is currently seeking a rebound at the key $80,000 support level.

Macroeconomic factors have led to a clear divergence between the two: the overnight financing rate (SOFR) is near 4.0%, the Treasury General Account (TGA) remains elevated, global liquidity is restricted, and systemic financial stress is rising. Demand for risk assets has weakened, while demand for safe-haven assets has rebounded, pushing gold prices higher. At the same time, financial market volatility and the unwinding of arbitrage trades have exacerbated short-term pressure on Bitcoin.