Geopolitics

The essay discusses a significant shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, with probability favoring rate hikes instead of cuts. This change is attributed to rising inflation fears linked to energy prices amid Middle East tensions. Additionally, while Bitcoin has held steady, it remains underperforming compared to other assets like gold and stocks.

Gate News announcement: On March 29, according to reports from Iran’s Islamic Republic of Broadcasting, Iran’s Army air defense forces shot down an MQ-9 “Reaper” drone (U.S. military’s large reconnaissance/attack drone) in the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz.

During Trump’s tenure, traders made precise moves ahead of his major policy announcements and could have profited millions of dollars. Legal experts say these trades look suspicious and should be investigated for information leaks to protect market fairness.

Before Trump's second term, multiple traders profited millions of dollars by positioning themselves ahead of his policy decisions, sparking calls from legal experts for investigations into information leaks. Experts pointed out that these trading patterns are suspicious and may involve insider trading, warranting attention from regulatory agencies.

Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the situation. This move will weaken diplomatic buffers, escalate the nature of the conflict, and lead to increased volatility in the oil market, with oil prices and market volatility continuing to rise, reflecting market concerns over a prolonged conflict.

The article analyzes the potential global economic impact of the upcoming conflict between the U.S. and Iran, particularly on the energy market and the debt market. It is expected that during Easter weekend, the U.S. may take action, such as going to war, which would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices, and a significant contraction in the global bond market. The Federal Reserve, facing the triple pressures of inflation, a banking crisis, and war financing, may adopt a "financial repression" strategy to lower real interest rates. Ultimately, the risks in the bond market are considered a greater hidden danger.

Peter Van Valkenburgh warns that without passing the CLARITY Act, future U.S. administrations may impose strict regulations on crypto. He emphasizes the need for statutory protections to prevent reliance on political climates, as current agreements stall in Congress.

The crypto market remains stable amid geopolitical tensions, with a market cap of $2.31T. Bitcoin and Ethereum show slight gains, while notable gainers include TRUMP, IRIS, and PEPE. DeFi TVL rises, but NFT sales decline. Key companies adopt Solana's toolkit, and Singapore reports an $8.83M crypto theft.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump's media-driven strategy is losing influence over the markets, as investors now prioritize economic fundamentals over political messaging. This shift indicates a more stable and mature investor attitude amid ongoing volatility.

Gate News report, on March 29, a spokesperson for the Central Command of the Iranian Armed Forces, Khatam al-Anbiya, issued a statement in response to U.S. President Trump's threat of ground action against Iran. The statement said that if the relevant threats are carried out, the Iranian armed forces will respond decisively. The statement pointed out that U.S. military actions in the region are facing a serious situation, and that its related military deployments have already been struck. It also emphasized that the Iranian armed forces are prepared to respond to any potential military actions. (CCTV News)

The recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict have been escalating continuously. The U.S. 82nd Airborne Division has canceled the "Joint Readiness Training Center" rotation, the normally sea-lifted 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade is being airlifted, and blood supply reserves at U.S. military bases in the Middle East have increased by 500%. The largest overseas hospital of the U.S. Department of Defense—Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany—has suspended some civilian services. The last time this combination of actions occurred was just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. In the midst of this tense atmosphere, Trump suddenly posted that there had been "very, very good and productive conversations" between the U.S. and Iran, and announced that the U.S. would pause military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. In the early hours of March 27, Beijing time, Trump posted again, stating that the pause would be extended until April 6. This objective fact contrasts with Trump’s

The US is reportedly preparing for a potential two-month ground invasion of Iran, with discussions on deploying up to 10,000 troops. Analysts suggest this could involve raids on key Iranian sites. The situation is fluid amidst ongoing military conflict and financial market reactions.

Peter Steinberger, the founder of OpenClaw, pointed out that there is a significant difference in the acceptance of AI agents between China and the United States. China is actively promoting OpenClaw, becoming the world's largest testing ground for AI agents, despite the government having restricted state-owned enterprises from using it; while the United States is relatively conservative, with some companies having security concerns about using open AI tools. Steinberger will also join OpenAI to promote the development of Codex technology and is establishing the OpenClaw Foundation, hoping to maintain a neutral stance and promote global collaboration.

Gate News reported that on March 29, Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang, together with South Korean National Assembly members, jointly launched the "Hong Kong-Korea Web3 Policy Promotion Alliance." The alliance focuses on five key areas: digital asset regulation, stablecoin mechanisms, artificial intelligence development, blockchain infrastructure interconnection, and regulatory standards. It is reported that this is Asia's first cross-regional civil policy cooperation platform.

The Bitcoin mining industry is facing severe challenges, with mining costs skyrocketing to $88,000, while the Bitcoin price is around $68,000, leading to increased losses for miners. As geopolitical risks and high oil prices take their toll, hash power continues to decline, and industry pressure has also triggered market instability. Many mining companies are beginning to transition to AI and high-performance computing in order to survive.

JPMorgan Chase指出，在中东冲突中，比特币展现出强大的抗跌韧性，资金大规模涌入，交易活动活跃，而黄金和白银则面临资金外流。在高利率和强势美元的压力下，黄金价格下跌约15%。比特币凭借无国界特性成为避险选择，机构投资者也调整了布局，显示黄金流动性下降，而比特币流动性上升。

U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the United States will swiftly withdraw from Iran, believing that all military objectives have been achieved, and the current military actions are to ensure that Iran no longer poses a threat to the U.S. He pointed out that the current rise in oil prices is a temporary reaction to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, and that oil prices will fall after the withdrawal.

Gate News reports that on March 29, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung nominated Shin Hyun Song, the head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, as a candidate for the new governor of the Bank of Korea. It is reported that Shin Hyun Song is known as a "pragmatic hawk" and holds a negative attitude towards the Korean won-pegged stablecoin promoted by the Lee administration. Shin Hyun Song believes that in countries with highly volatile exchange rates that are susceptible to capital outflows, stablecoins can easily become a tool for capital flight, and stablecoins pegged to the local currency may accelerate this trend.

The U.S.-Iran war is escalating, with U.S. forces at a base in Saudi Arabia being attacked by Iran, resulting in at least 15 injuries. The Pentagon is drafting operational plans for ground troops, focusing on Iran's nuclear weapons. The Strait of Hormuz has become a diplomatic toll station, allowing only friendly countries to pass, and the crypto market is also under pressure due to the war.

The Trump administration has recently been wavering on its stance toward the war. The White House warned that if Iran does not abandon its nuclear ambitions, it could face a devastating strike, while also considering seizing Hark Island to counter the weapon threat. Market predictions show that in the short term, the odds that Iran will no longer control Hark Island are relatively low.