ChainCatcher 消息,富达全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 发文表示,比特币现在的走势更接近互联网的 S 型曲线,而不是幂律曲线。很多比特币支持者宣称四年周期已经结束,新的结构性上涨浪潮即将到来。我对此持怀疑态度,并非质疑减半周期的影响力正在减弱(这一点我同意),而是质疑熊市不再出现的说法。
目前,比特币的底线是 6.5 万美元(此前的高点),幂律趋势线显示底线则是 4.5 万美元。虽然距离目标价位还有一段距离,但如果比特币在未来一年内进入盘整阶段,幂律趋势线可能会更接近 6.5 万美元,并可能成为比特币的生死线。但这或许(也可能不会)是未来(或未来一年)才会发生的事情。
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