Bitcoin does not have a Santa Rally, but the outlook for 2026 still leaves room for growth opportunities.

The festival season often ignites hopes of a “Santa Rally,” but as we move into 2025, the picture looks less bright for Bitcoin holders: instead of excitement, a series of warning signals are emerging.

Bitcoin’s price currently hovers around $87,440, up just 0.33%, reflecting cautious sentiment and fragility that are dominating the market.

Analysts Predict Bitcoin’s Bottom

This weakening has sparked what is called a “fractal fever” on social media platforms, as more analysts point out that Bitcoin’s current price structure mirrors the peak of the 2021 bull cycle.

Back then, Bitcoin (BTC) hit $51,700 on December 24, before plunging 34% in just one month. If history repeats itself, the market could face a volatile and risky January.

A widely circulated analysis on X platform suggests that if the 2021 sell-off rate is applied to the current context, Bitcoin’s price could easily slide back to the $70,000 zone.

Amidst this, traders with a bearish outlook are especially watching this price level. The big question for 2026 seems less about when Bitcoin will hit six figures, and more about whether the current correction is deep enough to push the market into a prolonged downturn cycle.

Commenting on this view, another user on X shared:

“I’m not very convinced by fractals, but the current price and market behavior make this scenario quite plausible.”

Analyst Kaleo also expressed a similar opinion, stating:

“I still believe the current market is quite similar to the fall of 2020.”

Is a Bitcoin Super Cycle Coming?

Bitcoin is moving within a pattern known as “mini-Bart,” where the price nearly erases all previous gains and gradually stabilizes within a lower trading range.

Losing a key support level has pushed the market into a slow accumulation phase, quiet and somewhat dull — a stage that often makes traders feel bored and unmotivated.

However, history shows that such pauses are often precursors to strong breakouts. Instead of signaling a prolonged bear cycle, the current price structure is opening hopes for the emergence of a new “Super Cycle.”

If Bitcoin can break out and establish new all-time highs in 2026, the market is likely to enter longer growth phases, bringing about genuine altcoin seasons and a wave of explosive adoption from mainstream crypto applications.

While the market may soon face a sharp correction, the quiet periods like now are precisely when major opportunities are quietly forming.

What Are Bitcoin’s Q1/2026 Outlooks?

Latest analysis from Coin Photon indicates Bitcoin remains resilient above a critical support zone, between the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, around $84,000–$85,000. Notably, analyst Beimnet Abebe even considers the sub-$80,000 region an attractive zone for long-term accumulation. However, despite the market gradually regaining price stability, Bitcoin faces another cultural barrier.

Social media interest is waning significantly, while the growing influence of financial institutions raises questions: Is Bitcoin gradually losing its original decentralized spirit? ETFs are helping support prices and reduce sharp declines, but at the same time, they also restrain the explosive rallies that once fueled market optimism.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the True MVRV index in 2025 is only 2.17, considerably lower than previous cycles. This reflects a maturing market where smart money tends to take profits early, limiting extreme volatility. As 2026 approaches, investors must face a new reality: Bitcoin may be safer and more predictable, but the cost is a diminished energy that once made it uniquely powerful.

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