NVIDIA's earnings are a pleasant surprise, injecting confidence into the market, while the Fed's minutes show increasing divergence, significantly cooling expectations for a rate cut in December.

BlockBeats news, on November 20, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) announced its Q3 revenue for the 2026 fiscal year of $57 billion, up from $35.082 billion in the same period last year, with market expectations at $54.923 billion. It also forecasts Q4 revenue for the 2026 fiscal year to be $65 billion, with market expectations at $61.6 billion. The growth rate of chip sales, which are at the core of the artificial intelligence boom, exceeded Wall Street's expectations, while a strong revenue forecast for the current quarter led investors to believe that the AI investment frenzy will continue. NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang stated that he does not see an AI bubble. The market rebounded after NVIDIA released its financial report, with Bitcoin rising to $91,500 and Ethereum climbing to $3,000. NVIDIA's stock rose over 5% in after-hours trading, and Nasdaq futures opened up 1% on Thursday. Additionally, the Fed released the minutes of its October meeting this morning, revealing divisions among policymakers on whether to lower interest rates in December. Several participants opposed a rate cut, exacerbating divisions within the Fed. Expectations for a rate cut in December have cooled significantly, with no key data available for officials to reference before the meeting. The market now expects the probability of a rate cut in December to drop to 31.6%. The minutes indicated: “Many participants support lowering the target range for the federal funds rate,” but also noted that some members who support a rate cut find maintaining rates unchanged acceptable as well. Several officials directly opposed a rate cut, expressing concerns that the committee is stagnating in achieving its 2% inflation target and pointing out that if inflation does not return to 2% in a timely manner, long-term inflation expectations may rise. Most participants noted that further reductions in the policy rate could exacerbate the risk of persistently high inflation or be misinterpreted by the market as a lack of commitment by policymakers to achieve the 2% inflation target. These minutes reflect officials' efforts to seek consensus in the absence of data: balancing the dual risks of rising inflation and a weak labor market while warning that a “dramatic revaluation” of the market regarding AI investments could lead to “disorderly declines in the stock market.”