#美联储降息政策 The Fed's interest rate cut on December 10th has become a certainty. The key is not whether they cut or not, but the subsequent liquidity injections. $45 billion per month in short-term Treasury purchases essentially means providing blood transfusions to the market in the first three months of next year. This is the underlying logic of the market trend.
BTC's triangle pattern is now a watershed. I previously planned to go long at 86,000, but the lowest it reached was just above 87,000, missing the opportunity. Not touching the lower boundary this time indicates that the bulls still have strength. In the short term, focus on a breakout above the pattern's upper boundary; once broken, a rapid rebound is highly likely. Support has moved up to 88,000-89,000, and subsequent pullbacks to this range can be considered for entry.
ETH has also been quite frustrating this wave. I wanted to buy around 2880 but missed the chance, only to see it dip to 2900. However, after the rebound, the price is still consolidating, which is promising in the short term. The key is to stay above 3000; as long as this level holds, the probability of continued upward movement remains high.
For small-cap coins, GPS, Ntrn, Newt, pnut, nil are still waiting at the bottom for opportunities. Don't rush to chase highs. BCH, which I previously accumulated, has pulled back near 600 again. I plan to build a small position to test the waters. TAO's first halving this week makes the risk and reward worth a gamble.
The 0.9 key level for ASTER—if broken—will serve as a warning, similar to ZEC's previous experience. As for Binance's launch of spot trading this week, it could ignite the market, so small-scale accumulation and playing around is fine.
But on the other hand, even if your analysis is accurate, strict stop-loss execution is essential. Follow through once a level is broken; don't be overly clever and gamble on rebounds. The market changes rapidly; only by staying alive can you make money.